Wednesday January 19 2022
Noon update
The arctic front that is expected tomorrow will be a dramatic change to the mild air in place today. But these warmer temperatures now, play a role in my concern for what will develop.
For starters, rain showers will start tonight, and early Thursday morning. The few hours of snow will fall with falling temperatures right around daybreak. This is a small window for big problems to develop with slushy snow and a quick freeze. So icing on the roads is possible near, and mainly west and north of Baltimore.
Milld air in in place this afternoon. Rain will stream up our way tonight.
Low Pressure developing along the cold front will enhance the precipitation for us early Thursday morning. This will be just as the arctic air arrives.
More may get added.
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The arctic air is deep and cold, with a large region below zero. This contrast is feeding into the development of this system.
Rain will transition to snow in central Maryland between 6 AM and 10 AM. The wave of Low Pressure may sent the northern edge of snow back north into Pennsylvania for additional snow coating there for a couple of hours.
Snow will linger in southern Maryland and The Lower Eastern Shore during the afternoon.
Closer look at this snow development.
Rain showers tonight, then turns to snow during Thursday morning. Snow will fall with slushy stickage on roads… THEN temps drop to freezing west and north 1 to 2 hours after the change to snow. This will be during the morning commute and could lead to an icy mess.
Please note the time stamps. Should this arrive an hour or two faster then even more impact on the metro commute is likely.
6 AM
Watching the snow develop near Frederick and the PA line in Baltimore County.
7 AM
Snow should expand to Baltimore. Steady snow expected between Frederick, Westminster, and perhaps Bel Air.
The Freezing Line will reach 1 to 2 hours after the snow begins.
This should reach Frederick to Westminster and York PA at this time.
8 AM
Snow will expand south to near Annapolis.
The freezing line should reach Germantown, Westminster, and northeast to Forest Hill.
9 AM
Snow should arrive in Kent Inland and Easton. Also close to Dover.
A brief north push into southern PA may expand the coating on the roads.
Temps down to the 20s in Carroll County will accelerate the chance for icing on the roads.
The freezing line will be close to the Baltimore AND Washington Beltways.
10 AM
Snow should be ending in metro Baltimore, but expanding to southern Maryland.
The freezing line will be close to I-95 and remain nearly stationary during the day.
The freezing line will still be draped across Rt 50/Bay Bridge areas. So the snow in Southern Maryland may be melting on the pavement.
Please note this is the NAM forecast, not mine. I am showing you because I think the general expectation of 1 to 3 inches is a good starting point.
Even the local office has an average of 1 to 2 inches of snow.
Here’s a look at the arctic air that will follow.
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
