May 19 Weather Sunday Starts Foggy The Warming With Sun And Summer Heat On The Way
Sunday May 19 Morning Report The aftermath of the rainy Saturday is plenty of leftover moisture. This has left us with a bit of humidity and areas of thick fog…
Thursday Mid Day Update
The storm is taking form now. There is a lot of moisture well north of the Low Pressure center. With the overnight timing AND cold temperatures, there is potential for this to overachieve.
I know we are in the game of maps with snow totals, and it is easy to want to gravitate to the highest numbers. I stand by my initial call on two things:
Timing will be overnight tonight and ending before sunrise.
This will be a general 2 to 4 inch snow event.
My first map was conservative, then increased a little this morning. I will have a final call map later today to include the highest end I see possible. You can compare the range of potential on this NWS Snow Map page.
In this report I included a few model snow maps for you to compare.
Set Up: Thursday Mid Day
Satellite Loop (Visible)
Radar Simulation —> slider
HRRR Model
- This is the highest resolution and most frequently updates product.
- Snow will begin late afternoon in the mountains. This will track along NW hills/ridges for a few hours into the evening.
- Metro areas will get it by midnight, then ending before sunrise.
- Southern Maryland may begin with rain, then end with snow.
NAM 3 Km Model
This has shifted north, pushing the snow north. I am not sure I can completely buy the results here.
Expectations:
- Evening Snow moves in from mountains to NW hills.
- Metro Areas get snow just before midnight.
- Heaviest snow after midnight.
- Total snow for most about 6 hours…
- Ending for most by sunrise Friday.
- Generally 2 to 4 inches. Some spots may be higher.
- Temperatures will be colder, so this snow will be more ‘fluffy’ with easy stickage.
Temperatures
Midnight: Cooling to the upper 20s when the snow begins.
Morning: Remaining in the mid to upper 20s
Snowfall Products: Model Compared
There is some agreement, but still areas with a wide spread to contrast.
GFS Model
NCEP: National Blend of Models
NWS: National Digital Forecast
Winter Weather Advisory
Most of our region will experience impact snow tonight.
My Call For Snowfall
If there is a need to adjust this any further, I will post a final map later today.
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
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Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
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Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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