December 24 Christmas Eve Early Morning Light Icy Mix
December 24, 2024 Monday Morning Report The result of a few very cold nights will allow this light precipitation to stick. It will only last a couple of hours AND…
Thursday Mid Day Update
The storm is taking form now. There is a lot of moisture well north of the Low Pressure center. With the overnight timing AND cold temperatures, there is potential for this to overachieve.
I know we are in the game of maps with snow totals, and it is easy to want to gravitate to the highest numbers. I stand by my initial call on two things:
Timing will be overnight tonight and ending before sunrise.
This will be a general 2 to 4 inch snow event.
My first map was conservative, then increased a little this morning. I will have a final call map later today to include the highest end I see possible. You can compare the range of potential on this NWS Snow Map page.
In this report I included a few model snow maps for you to compare.
Set Up: Thursday Mid Day
Satellite Loop (Visible)
Radar Simulation —> slider
HRRR Model
- This is the highest resolution and most frequently updates product.
- Snow will begin late afternoon in the mountains. This will track along NW hills/ridges for a few hours into the evening.
- Metro areas will get it by midnight, then ending before sunrise.
- Southern Maryland may begin with rain, then end with snow.
NAM 3 Km Model
This has shifted north, pushing the snow north. I am not sure I can completely buy the results here.
Expectations:
- Evening Snow moves in from mountains to NW hills.
- Metro Areas get snow just before midnight.
- Heaviest snow after midnight.
- Total snow for most about 6 hours…
- Ending for most by sunrise Friday.
- Generally 2 to 4 inches. Some spots may be higher.
- Temperatures will be colder, so this snow will be more ‘fluffy’ with easy stickage.
Temperatures
Midnight: Cooling to the upper 20s when the snow begins.
Morning: Remaining in the mid to upper 20s
Snowfall Products: Model Compared
There is some agreement, but still areas with a wide spread to contrast.
GFS Model
NCEP: National Blend of Models
NWS: National Digital Forecast
Winter Weather Advisory
Most of our region will experience impact snow tonight.
My Call For Snowfall
If there is a need to adjust this any further, I will post a final map later today.
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ALSO SEE
What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow
ALL FITF GEAR
FITF THUNDERSNOW
Winter Outlook Series:
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources
Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow
Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA
NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print
Signals For Early Start To Winter In November
Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip
Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern
Winter Folklore Checklist
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