November 23 2021

Could the first flakes be on the way at the end of Thanksgiving Weekend?  This may be a stretch for some, but it is worth having the conversation just to pay attention to at this time.

Last week I made a stand to NOT discuss a potential snow event 8 days away. That was because I did not trust the computer modeling. Many ‘potential’ weather events more than one week away got some excited, then would vanish. Well, that event would have been happened by today, and it did not. So I made the right call. 

Fast forward to the topic of this post. Why would I ‘go there’?

There are a few reasons I am mentioning long range snow now.

1. The potential for snow on Sunday morning is less than 5 days away. Model guidance accuracy is a bit better.
2. This would be at the end of the holiday weekend, and worth at least thinking about now. I WOULD NOT CHANGE ANY PLANS YET!
3. This is a clipper system. Those are fast moving in the jet stream, which tend to hold up better than larger scale storms in this time range. It’s basically one piece of energy to track, rather than a few that would need to come together. 

Animation Thanksgiving Night to Sunday Night

Rain arrives overnight After Thanksgiving, with snow to follow in the mountains on Friday.

Watch the clipper race in from the upper MidWest to arrive Sunday morning. That is where we get the classic ‘snow inland and rain more likely by the water’.

This is NOT a major event and NOT for all. But, it could be the first flakes of the season in the region.

Snapshot:  European Model

1 AM to 7AM SUNDAY 

ECMWF 120 Hr Forecas

Compared To The GFS

The American Model has just begun to hint at ‘something’.

This solution is LATER and LESS robust. 

Set Up:

For argument sake, I am referring to the European Model from this point forward. It is considered to have a greater accuracy.

Before showing the the rest of the weather maps, I want to set the stage.  A cold front will arrive on Friday morning. This will bing a brief hit of rain, followed by gusty winds and colder air into the weekend.

The system will be fast moving and expected to pass to our south. That is optimal when crossing the mountains. 

Timing

Inland areas could get snow, but stickage would depend on the ground temps AND timing.  What I will show below is mainly a Sunday morning thing. But I have seen models run slow then play catch up. So we could be dealign with something that ends up arriving later Saturday or overnight.   

Jet Stream

You can question whether we get snow or not, but it is hard to deny the reinforcing jet stream trough to supply colder air.

Snapshot

It does look like there will be two impulses.  Both will be passing in the needed track to our south. The question will be how close to impact us.

Rain/Snow Animation

Closer Look 1 AM Sun to 1 AM Mon

This does NOT denote accumulation.

Temperatures

Cold air will be in place, but marginal with freezing in the north areas. 

“North and West” event… 

Early season systems also need to compete with a warmer Chesapeake Bay. The cities are a dividing line.  If you live near or south of I-95 this is likely NOT going to be noteworthy with stickage. Rain or snow falling is still questionable there.

Notes:

If you are traveling, no need to make any adjustments now. But may be worth watching if you are traveling in these areas:

Roads tend to have been paved on old geological demarcations. Here are the typical road/landmarks to keep in min.

• North on I-83 North of Timonium/Cockeysville.
• NW on I-795 beyond Owings Mills to Reisterstown and Westminster
• West on I-70 closer to Mt Airy and Frederick. 

More likely areas to get some light snow SundayL

• Western Maryland, Southern and Western PA.

I will keep track of this each day and let you know if the chances hold or of this falls apart.

Faith in the Flakes Gear

Also see:

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist