Current Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 12/06/2021 10:40:02 pm
Temperature

48°

Mostly Cloudy

22°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

36%

Feels Like

42°

Wind (WNW)

17mph

Air Pressure

29.92

Sun
Sun Rise

07:12 AM

Sun Set

04:43 PM

Day Length

09:31 Hours

Difference

0 min 57 sec loss

Moon
Moon Rise

09:56 AM

Moon Set

07:12 PM

Next: First Quarter

Dec 10,2021

Moon Phase

Waxing Crescent

Climate
Average Low

31°

48°

Average High
Record Low

13°


(2002)

77°


(1998)
Record High
Current Conditions

Record High Temperatures And Severe Storm Timeline

Severe Weather
Forecast

October 25 2021

Exceptionally warm temperatures and a strong cold front will combine for an eruption of severe storms later this afternoon through tonight. This post has the parameters and simulation timeline. 

I believe this will be more widespread thanks to a few key ingredients. 

Let’s start with the heat:  At 12:30 PM, the temperature at Baltimore’s BWI was observed at 79ºF. This surpassed the old record high of 77ºF set in 1931. It should be noted this was the only date of the month with a record under 80ºF, and we are about to change that.

Temperatures at 1 PM

 

Water Vapor Satellite Loop

10:21 AM to 12:31 PM

The moisture aloft is broken in two clusters. One in the semi-tropical flow up the east coast. The other spinning around a cold upper level Low in Indiana. 

 

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Surface Map

The forecast will combine right over central Maryland late afternoon and evening. The colder air will win and then transfer to a new storm/Nor’easter off the coast in the next two days. 

 

Wind Forecast

Many times I have highlighted the wind direction. A Southeast Wind enhances storm chances in urban areas.

In our region that plays a key role to offset the disruption over the mountains and moist flow from the Chesapeake Bay.

We will watch for that to develop before the storms arrive. If this swings to the South/Southeast, the risk for severe storms increases.

 

 

Potential:

  • Damaging winds over 60 mph

  • Large Hail over 1” diameter

  • Isolated Tornado 

 

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  • Watch means it might happen.
  • Warning means it is happening and being tracked.

 

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Simulation Radar —-> slider

We will watch for scattered showers forming in the southern Bay to move north. That would enhance the eruption of storms this evening.

If that does not develop, then the activity will be less robust than shown here.

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Severe Storm Parameters

CAPE- Convective Available Potential Energy

When this rises above 1000 J/Kg then supercell chances are moderate.

 

Significant Tornado Parameter

When values reach above 1, there is an increased chance for EF-2 twisters.

 

 



 

 

NOAA Severe Storm Outlook

(From this morning)

I believe the ‘RISK’ will be expended into metro Washington and Baltimore.

 

Also See:

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

 

 

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