January 3, 2024

Wednesday Morning Update

We are looking ahead to the weekend for our first winter storm in a couple of years, however, I briefly want to point backward. One year ago today, we set the record high for this date in Baltimore with a high temperature of 69ºF.

This time around, we are back to reality with seasonably chilly air and frosty windshields. The cold will be getting a booster over the next few days to be just cold enough as the storm arrives this weekend.

The trend continues to speed up the arrival, and we might be talking about the first flakes during the morning to mid-day. Then we will still be on for snow to fall at the Ravens game. The modeling overnight did split as the GFS is trending colder while the European Model is warmer, resulting in a wide spread of snow expectations… especially over the most populated I-95 corridor and metro areas. This is why I personally believe it is too early to make snow calls. I will have my first call for the low-end confidence number and begin to explore the model maps in my storm analysis report later today.

Below is a look. I will have more storm details and analysis in my afternoon and evening reports.

Morning Surface Weather

Not much to see here. We do have a seasonal chill and perhaps added frost to scrape off the windshield this morning. Otherwise, the sky will be clear, and the wind will be light.

A storm to the south will miss us. The split energy (this time) will bring colder air and a small chance of a shower tomorrow.

The storm we are focusing on for the weekend has the energy just reaching the west coast of the US today.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 3

Sunrise at 7:26 AM

Sunset at 4:56 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 0ºF in 1879

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 69ºF 2023

Thursday

Morning Showers?

There will be split energy that may still allow for some light snow or flurries for the inland areas.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Weekend Storm

Please note that for simplicity in this morning’s report, I am only using one model. The GFS has performed well and will remain the standard for now. I will compare with other models and more detailed analysis in my afternoon and evening reports.

The trend has been to arrive earlier… perhaps as soon as Saturday morning (with the latest solution).

Storm Animation Saturday Morning to Sunday Night

I need to emphasize that there has been a trend to speed this up a little, so the first flakes may arrive in the morning through noon. The steady snow is expected to pick up during the afternoon and evening…

There has been some split between the colder GFS Model and the warmer European ECMWF Model.  This will be important to determine where the snow/rain line sets up. I will have a closer look later today, but it is still too early to lock this down, let alone post any snow maps with confidence.

Snapshot: 7 PM Saturday

It still looks like steady snow could be falling over Baltimore for the Ravens game. The rain line will be creeping in from the south, but may hold away from the city for a few hours to allow for some accumulation. There will be heavy snow where it remains cold farther inland.

GFS Model

This plot shows the moderate snow still falling over Baltimore, also Annapolis and Washington.

ECMWF Model

This plot shows the rain line getting close to Baltimore, with rain in Annapolis and Washington.

Snapshots: 7 AM Sunday Morning

GFS Model

The end of the storm? Or will showers linger during the day?

ECMWF Model

My Preliminary Call Map

Click the image for my full report from last night

Notes:

I WILL NOT post snow total maps. I do not trust the accuracy at this early time frame. I also do not want to put large numbers out there and have to pull back. That is often the case. There are some rare occasions when the models can be close or ramp up as we get closer… but I set my rule and will follow it:

First call for low-end confidence snow will be 72 hours from the start. Then, within 48 hours we can refine the realistic expectations.

This will be helpful for plotting the rain/snow line as well.

Next Week: Tuesday

The follow-up Storm Looks Like a Miller B storm with more inland focus. We truly will not have a handle on this until we see how the first one behaves… But at this time it looks like it is safe to state inland snow/mix with rain more likely for metro and Bay areas.

7 Day Forecast

The cold air will arrive in time for the storm… Note these are numbers around Baltimore. It will be colder with more snow inland and warmer south and across the Bay.

The following storm may bring wintry weather inland, with rain more likely in metro and Bay areas.

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

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The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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