March 4 Cold Morning Then Warmer This Weekend: Record High AND Polar Vortex

Friday March 4

Morning Report

I may end up repeating myself every day for the next week: March is full of surprises. I start with that because after our cold morning, temps will warm this weekend.  We may end up with a record high in the upper 70s by Monday. 

Then…

WINTER IS NOT DONE YET! A Polar Vortex Disruption is expected next week. The GFS Model briefly put snow on the map nearby Thursday, then next weekend could be some of the coldest air of the season! I will have a report this afternoon dedicated to that.

Trivia: On this date in 2014, BWI dropped to +4ºF, marking the COLDEST temperature for the month ever measured in our region.

Morning Surface Weather

Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Weather Almanac: Climate Data at BWI

TODAY March 4

Seasonal Snow: 14”

Normal Low in Baltimore:  30ºF

Record 4º F in  2014

Normal High in Baltimore: 50ºF

Record 80ºF 1923

Saturday Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon

Note: It will be chilly closer to the water.  A surge of warmer air will push through Sunday and Monday.

Animation: 7 AM Sun to 7 AM Tue

Rain Showers possible on Sunday as the warmer air moves in… Ten the next rain risk will be AFTER our warm Monday when thunderstorms will be possible at night. 

Thursday Snapshot

This may have been a blip, but I wanted to show you the GFS Model trying to drop snow nearby.  There may be more to focus on over the next 10 days.

Jet Stream

7 AM Sun Mar 6 to 7 PM Sat Mar 12

Red: Big Ridge = Very Warm

Blue/Green: Deep Trough = Very Cold

7 Day Forecast

The Record High for Sun March 6 was 76ºF in 1935. Breaching this will be a stretch.

The Record High for Mon March 7 was 76ºF in 1974.  This has the best chance to be broken.

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF