Friday February 11- Morning Report
Yesterday Baltimore’s BWI reached 60ºF. This follows the typical pattern of reading warmer than forecast at the airport, so we can easily anticipate even warmer this afternoon. For what it’s worth, the record high temperature on this date was 72ºF set in 1887. That’s a ling standing record that will not be challenged today, but hopes for how warm it could get with optimal conditions.
My son wants to wear shorts to school, and I am getting easier in my older age, but it will still be cold this morning!
The weekend will still turn colder, so enjoy today’s spring preview. We still expect snow on Sunday, but a better handle on this being a morning event and mostly light. Still a few details to sort out, but a definite shock to the system.
Headlines
Morning Set Up
A clipper is crossing the Great Lakes, which will enhance the warming winds ahead of it. So, we will turn breezy but that will push temps back into the 60s.
Morning Temperatures
Afternoon Temperatures
TODAY February 11
Seasonal Snow: 13.3”;
+4.7″ ABOVE AVERAGE
Normal Low in Baltimore: 26ºF
Record -6ºF in 1899
Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF
Record 72ºF 1887
The high in central Maryland will be around Lunchtime
12 PM Sat to 8 PM Sun
Here’s the push of colder air taking over. Considering that the snow event may be just in the morning, Sunday afternoon may briefly get above freezing, then drop again by evening
Now that we are within 2 days, we are getting a better handle on this event. However, there are some glitches in the modeling that is still presenting a challenge.
The European now looks like the GFS Model had looked all week. The Canadian is close to that solution as well, and now the GFS Model has shifted east.
Still more focus west, with the heaviest ‘burst’ of snow
Now more in line with the Canadian AND the former GFS plots.
This has been the most consistent, but now the outlier pushing the snow farther east. I do not endorse this abrupt chance with one model flip. I will be waiting for the morning package to see if this was a blip and what the other main models display.
When I see flips like this in the modeling, I do not pounce. It’s best to wait for the next run to see if the glitch sorts itself out.
This is looking like an Early Morning event. It’s best to lower expectations to a coating to 1 inch, with some spots that could get higher in a burst.
Yesterday I mentioned “a coating to 3 inches”. It tuns out a lot of people only heard 3 inches. That is why I hold off amounts until later.
The early morning will help to counter the warmer ground. So the other challenge will be how much snow can lay and stay… on the roads.
Saturday Morning to Thursday Morning
After the cold start to next week, a surge of warmer air will build in with 60s returning by Thursday.
I need to emphasize: Winter is NOT done! Watching the bookends of 60s today and next Thursday, with only light snow in the middle may give that impression. I’ve heard that from conviction from a few people… But it’s not my impression.
In fact, what I have often seen is that in late winter when we get a surge of well above normal temps, it is often countered by a return of winter weather to balance it out. It may take another week or two, but it’s too early to throw in the towel.
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
