February 12, 2024

Some schools are already making a call to delay in anticipation of snow on Tuesday morning. I suggest you check your source to confirm. The snow will fall,  but stickage is not guaranteed with the warmer temperatures. This will be a wet and slushy snow, with some areas getting stickage, others limited to the grass and elevated surfaces… while some may just stay wet.

The storm arriving tonight is getting a charge from upper-level energy. This will allow rapid intensification to produce heavy rain for our region (1 to 2 inches) and will also tap into cold air.  The concern for wintry weather in this event will be early Tuesday during the morning commute. There will also be strong winds whipping gusts up to 40 mph. So the morning hours will be a bit intense for a bit. 

Change Over To Snow/Dynamic Cooling

The strength of the storm will actually produce its own cold air in a process called Dynamic Cooling: The heavier precipitation will help change the rain over to heavy wet snow as rapidly rising air in the clouds, and the force of the heavy precipitation will drag down colder air with it.

Slushy Stickage?

I have been very cautious with this event because although the air will be cold enough for snow, but the surface temperatures will be just above freezing. The snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour or more. This is a perfect setup to overtake the melting on the ground, especially during the dark hours just before sunrise. 

So even with the last few days in the 50s and 60s, we can get stickage on the ground as the snow falls faster than it can melt. 

Winter Weather Advisory/Winter Storm Warning

I will share the first snow maps below.

The Winter Weather Advisory: Snow 1 to 3 inches

• Central Maryland, including the colder areas from Hagerstown, Frederick, Westminster, and the Hereford Zone
• Metro areas around Baltimore, Columbia, Bel Air, and Elkton along I-95
• Southern Pennsylvania from Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster

Winter Storm Warning: Snow 4 to 8 inches

• Maryland: Cumberland to Garrett County
• Pennsylvania around Harrisburg and NORTH!
• Also, a heads up if traveling to metro New York

Monday Afternoon Set Up

Low Pressure in Eastern Tennessee is undergoing an occlusion process. This is when cold air wraps around the core and cuts off… which can then shift the energy to the SOUTHEAST and develop a new Low Pressure that becomes the primary. We see that starting now… which will allow for a push to the coast sooner AND stay south of our region. 

There is also upper-level energy with colder air being injected from the WEST. This will all combine for a rapidly developing storm. 

Storm Animation: 7 PM Mon to 7 PM Tue

This Mid-Atlantic view shows the rain developing this evening and enhancing tonight. As Low Pressure passes to our south, the snow (blue) gets pulled in early in the morning with the colder air and dynamic cooling.

Note: The rainfall maybe 1 to 2 inches.

Snapshots

7 AM

The suggestion is that the snow line may creep into metro Baltimore by sunrise. This does NOT promise stickage but supports more snow earlier inland. That might be early enough for some schools to make their call…. and help other travelers prepare for what may lay and stay on the roads or just the grass. 

Travel to Philadelphia and New York City will be compromised. Snow will begin later around Boston.

10 AM

The wet snow may get pulled to the coast. The timing suggests the snow may continue in metro areas for a few hours up through noon.

Heavy snow will challenge the big cities from Philadelphia to New York and Boston.

Closer Look

NAM 3 Km: 4 AM to Noon

This high resolution model shows the transition to snow (blue) between 4 to 6 AM around Frederick to York. The dark blue suggests heavy snowfall rates.

Snapshots

7 AM 

Snow reaching Baltimore and close to I-95. Inland areas will have heavy, wet snow. Regardless of stickage or not, it will drop visibility and still make for tough travel.

Temperatures 

The freezing line is not even close. Frederick may be close to 35ºF while York, PA may be marginal with 33ºF.

GFS Model

7 AM

This pulls the snow farther east and sooner.

Temperatures 

Similar to the NAM model plot, and still just above freezing. 

WINDY

The strengthening storm will pull in strong winds during the morning. Gusts may range from 40 mph inland to 50 mph near the coast.

Snowfall Maps

I am late to this party and have not drawn my map yet. I will work on that for my evening report. For now, here are two models and local NWS Offices to compare.

Computer Model Guidance

NAM 3 Km

GFS Model

National Weather Service

Maryland

Pennsylvania 

Central State

Full State

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Jan 16 Snow Report

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The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

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Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF