Friday Afternoon Update
Jan 5, 2024
The lines have been drawn. Well, most of them. Freezing temperatures play a big role for stickage, while there will be snow falling at the start in areas above 32°F, many urban areas may get away with wet roads. One noticeable trend is the speed of the storm. It will arrive faster, during the morning. Then might be over by midnight!?!
The impact of the approaching winter storm is set up along the classic “north and west of the cities get more” scenario. Elevation is key for the impact and accumulation. Farther inland, away from the bay and higher above sea level, will get a true winter storm. Meanwhile, in population centers along I-95 it may look like this thing was a bust.
A 30-mile spread may determine rain vs. over 4 inches of snow and ice!
Maryland: Carroll, Frederick. Washington and Allegany Counties. Plus, Skyline Drive area of VA.
3 to 6 inches of snow. Freezing Rain up to 1/4”.
Pennsylvania: 3 to 5 inches (I know this fits more with the ‘Warning’, but there are different criteria in PA).
Maryland: Northern Harford and Baltimore, Western Howard, and Montgomery counties. Parts of Central VA: 1 to 3 inches of snow plus a glaze of ice.
JUST EXPANDED:
Eastern Howard and Southern Montgomery Counties- Coating to 1 inch enough to form a glaze on roads.
Plenty of cold air today, even with the sun, but the storm will be trying to push some of that away.
The storm is taking form along the Gulf Coast between Houston and New Orleans. This has plenty of energy and contrast of cold, warm, and moist air to feed into rapid development.
The thermometer reading when you wake up may help tell your story. If your area is below freezing, you may stay there most of the day.
Some areas will be above freezing and get slushy snow for a bit, but impacts will be minimal to none.
The storm will be moving in during the morning. Metro areas may get the starter flakes or sleet between 10 AM and Noon.
Note: I have been sticking with the GFS for consistency. Its performance is what matches the NWS alerts compared to the warmer/lower snow and ice output from The European Model.
The peak impact for many will be during this time. Urban areas may start with up to a couple of hours of snow. It may begin with rain or sleet, then go to snow, then back to rain. Northern areas stay with snow much longer.
This freezing line is critical as it will establish the worst road areas and may hold in these same spots beyond sunset.
The evening transition to freezing rain or rain will be shown below.
I have been saying it will snow, and I think it will for tailgaters and the start. It looks like a change to rain during the game… If the rain takes over sooner. I will own my mistake.
Snow will continue inland.
GFS holds the cold and snow a little longer.
NAM is much more aggressive with a warmer and stronger storm. This suggests heavy rain and maybe even a rumble of thunder.
Rain in downtown Baltimore, but traveling home into the Advisory and Warning areas may be challenging!
GFS – Showing an ice event in the Advisory areas north of Baltimore.
NAM – aggressive with the fast movement and bringing this to an end for central Maryland/PA.
The GFS Model has sped up as well, with the ‘stuff’ ending before midnight.
I will make profile maps for I-70 and I-83 in my next report.
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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