January 2, 2024

Tuesday Afternoon Update

We are four days away from what may be the first winter storm in our region in two years. The trend has been a faster arrival and departure with more consolidation of the computer models. This increases the confidence in what we can expect. The storm has not formed yet, but it looks like it will.

At this time, it is best to suggest arrival mid-day Saturday, with the greatest impact at night, then ending by Sunday morning. It is very likely the snow will be falling during the Ravens football game hosting the Steelers in Baltimore late on Saturday.

7 PM Saturday Model Comparison

These are the latest solutions from the European ECWMF, American GFS, and Canadian GEM Models.

There are subtle differences here, but at first glance, they do show a very similar spread. While there will be more adjustments as we get closer to refining the storm, there is higher confidence in how it will behave.

National Weather Service Impact Maps

The consolidation of modeling is why the local weather offices have increased their expected impact.

Maryland/VA

Why always this dividing line along I-95?

This is where the topography comes into play. Near the Bay and Eastern Shore, it is close to sea level and warmer.

Fall Line: This ‘Upland Section’ moving inland the elevation increases up to 1,000 feet above sea level across northern Baltimore County and farther west. Click here to see more about Maryland Snow.

Pennsylvania

I still stand by these statements:

It is too early to plot a specific storm timeline. It has not formed yet.

It is too early to plot any rain/snow line. It has not formed yet.

It is too early to suggest how much snow may fall. Computer models may show something, but I believe it is irresponsible to post any snow numbers beyond 72 hours. I’ve been doing this a long time, and most often storms do not play out as first shown. Also, snow suggestions are nearly impossible before the storm actually forms.

ECMWF Model

This is the last model to complete its updates, so this run is from overnight. I will have the newest data in my evening report.

Saturday Evening

Sunday Morning

Snow is shown here, lingering early Sunday but coming to an end by noon.

Set Up: Upper Air

Focused across North America to the North of the coastal storm…

A blocking High in Canada AND a 50/50 Low in the North Atlantic are both supporting features for blocking and locking in cold ‘enough’ air for inland snow.

Storm Animation

7 AM Sat Jan 6 to 4 PM Sun Jan 7

Snapshots

4 PM Sat Jan 6

Sticking with this faster solution. The first flakes may arrive mid-day, but steady snow appears to be on target with the late Saturday afternoon Ravens game.

10 PM Sat Jan 6

The steady and heavy snow will continue inland while that dreaded rainline creeps in closer, BUT IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN.

I would not lock in on this plot for now… but Annapolis and much of Delmarva will likely switch to rain.

7 AM Sun Jan 7

This latest look brings this storm to an end early Sunday. It moves in and out faster. Recall that the ECWMF shown above had the snow last longer. It will be interactive to see if that model speeds up the ending as well. I will show that in my next report.

NOT THE ONLY SOLUTION

Recall that this has not even formed yet. We are trying to link up elements in the atmosphere 5 days away, and other models put them together differently.

Canadian GEM Model

This now looks a lot like the GFS model, as opposed to a different solution from yesterday. That is a signal of the convergence and higher confidence.

Storm Animation

7 AM Sat Jan 6 to 4 PM Sun Jan 7

My Thoughts

We have already seen quite a few changes with this storm, primarily with the timing speeding up.

I stand by my principle of 72 hours before the start to get any idea of how much and what we can legitimately expect. My next report this evening will include the latest ECMWF Model and first suggestion for the local snow/mix line.

Patience and Faith in the Flakes. This is looking better than the last few years, for sure.

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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