January 2, 2024

Tuesday Morning Update

This morning was one way to shake into the new year across parts of Maryland. As many return to work and school, there was a jolt to the ground in Montgomery County, MD! A 2.3 Magnitude Earthquake was measured by the USGS near Rockville. It was a shallow tremor just 3 km under the surface but enough to be felt in central Maryland.

Quake Map

There has been plenty of news from Japan about a major quake and tsunami. This is not necessarily connected. However, it is common to have one large quake on the planet, then on opposite ends there can be some minor quakes as the ‘plates’ are all connected.

Note: Maryland does average a few minor quakes each year.

Weather:

It is seasonably cold and there are notes of winter in our week ahead. The first disturbance may bring flurries or light snow inland on Thursday. The bigger story is the winter storm expected this weekend. I need to emphasize that this is looking more likely, however, I still remain cautious with the information I share. I do not believe in showing high snow maps before the storm forms. Especially when the rainline is not certain. However, the timing is trending earlier, and there may be an impact with snow for the Ravens game on Saturday.

Below is a look. I will have more storm details and analysis in my afternoon and evening reports.

Morning Surface Weather

Besides the morning earthquake, the weather map is quiet and seasonably chilly.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY January 2

Sunrise at 7:26 AM

Sunset at 4:55 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  27ºF

Record 0ºF in 1968

Normal High in Baltimore: 44ºF

Record 71ºF 1876

Wednesday Weather

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Thursday Morning (light) Snow?

There will be split energy that may allow for some light snow or flurries for inland areas.

Thursday Animation

Here, we can see the split with the bulk of energy forming rain along the coast.

Weekend Storm

Please note that for simplicity, in this morning’s report, I am only using one model. The GFS has performed well and will remain the standard for now. I will compare with the other models and have a more detailed analysis in my afternoon and evening reports.

The trend has been to arrive earlier… perhaps as soon as Saturday morning (with the latest solution).

Storm Animation Saturday Morning to Monday Morning

This currently looks like a Saturday into Sunday event, ending before the work week. There has been some adjustment in the timing AND a wobble of the rain and snow line. I would hold on to climate standards or, more likely, snow west and north of I-95 until we get to within 3 days of the start.

Snapshot: 4 PM Saturday

The snow may begin in the morning. At this point it looks like steady snow could be falling over Baltimore for the Ravens game.

We need to watch the track and depth of the cold air to determine the snow vs. wintry mix. Sleet and freezing rain may be reaching Southwest VA.

Snapshot: 7 AM Sunday Morning

The coastal Low will be moving away (with this solution), but steady snow may linger through the morning or longer.

Notes:

I WILL NOT post snow total maps. I do not trust the accuracy in this early time frame. I also do not want to put large numbers out there and have to pull back. That is often the case.  There are some rare occasions when the models can be close or ramp up as we get closer… but I set my rule and will follow:

The first call for low-end confidence snow will be 72 hours from the start. Then, within 48 hours we can refine the realistic expectations.

This will be helpful for plotting the rain/snow line as well.

7 Day Forecast

Seasonable cold weather is holding all week and trending colder for the weekend storm. Note that these temps reflect near BWI. It will be colder west and north, milder near the bay and Delmarva.

Light snow or flurries on Thursday, then we watch for the Winter Storm Saturday into Sunday.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

#FITF