December 15, 2023
Friday Morning Update
We get two more sunny days with quiet and mild weather. Temperatures will be above average in the 50s. Then we watch a new storm similar to last weekend. This will form in the Gulf of Mexico and then move up the East Coast.
The trends have been farther east to pass almost directly over the Chesapeake Bay and a little earlier. This repeating pattern will bring heavy rain and strong winds gusting to 45 mph Sunday night. It may also be followed by colder air and perhaps another round of snow showers.
High Pressure overhead will bring another sunny day. The winds will shift and allow a little warming to the mid 50s.
The storm system on the map is part of the expected redevelopment over The Gulf of Mexico. This will become the main storm that rolls up the East Coast on Sunday to bring us a wet and windy end to the weekend.
Sunrise at 7:19 AM
Sunset at 4:45 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 30ºF
Record 9ºF in 1960 and 1962
Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 70ºF 1929 and 1971
GFS MODEL – This has been the most consistent with the storm track… The European Model has followed this solution.
The trend to highlight now is the shift of the storm track to the East… to pass over the Chesapeake Bay. The result is higher rainfall totals.
The Primary Low storm track looks more like it will directly pass through central Maryland. This shift to the east brings the heaviest rain to include metro areas.
Like last week, there will be rain during the day, but the heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the dark hours at night.
The core Low will pass through early in the morning, with the heaviest rain overnight and lingering into the morning. We will dry out during the day, allowing the colder air to spill in later.
The strongest winds will be overnight and into the morning. Gusts will range between 25 and 45 mph.
Once again, we see a large area west of the Chesapeake Bay getting between 2 and 4 inches of rain. Less is expected on Delmarva and west into the high mountains.
The coolor air is likely to bring in some upper-level energy with flurries or snow showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Two sunny days ahead, then another Coastal Storm. It will bring heavier rain later in the day and the strongest winds overnight into Monday.
The colder air that follows may bring furries Monday night and Tuesday.
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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