November 21 Weather Rain Becomes Heavy Today And Tonight With Some Advisories
November 21, 2023
Tuesday Morning Update
This is our Thanksgiving Travel Storm Day. Rain will be spreading in during the late morning and early afternoon across metro areas. It has already started farther west. There is ‘just enough’ cold air in the high mountains that Frostburg to Garrett County may have some icy roads.
This storm will bring heavy rain tonight and possible thunder, as well as coastal flooding around the Chesapeake Bay. The entire system will be moving away Wednesday morning leaving us quiet for Thanksgiving.
Weather Alerts
A Winter Weather Advisory includes Garrett County, Maryland, and parts of Allegany County near Frostburg. This is for light snow or icing until 1 PM.
A Coastal Flood Warning is in place for Anne Arundel County. Winds from the East may raise water levels over 1 Foot for places like Annapolis.
Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Chesapeake Bay.
Morning Temperatures
We have a chilly start, but the areas below freezing are limited to the highest elevations near Garrett County in Western Maryland.
Morning Surface Weather
This is called a Double-Barrel Low Pressure as there are two distinct centers. This will push in steady rain today, and heavy rain overnight.
There are pockets of sleet and flurries at the start, but any risk of icy travel will be confined to the mountains.
Storm Simulation Tuesday Morning To Wednesday Evening
Snapshot Tonight at 10 PM
Heavy rain will reach the east coast tonight.
Snow and ice will bring the first full taste of winter to northern New England.
Closer Look
Storm Simulation Noon to 10 PM
Snapshots
Noon
Temperatures
4 PM
Wind Forecast
The onshore wind is why Anne Arundel County is expecting high water.
10 PM
Temperatures
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
TODAY November 21
Sunrise at 6:56 AM
Sunset at 4:48 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 36ºF
Record 16ºF in 1951
Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF
Record 79ºF 1900
Winter Outlook Reports:
El Niño Winter Updates
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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Sign up and be the first to know!Overnight Rain Simulation
10 PM Tue to 10 AM Wednesday
The heaviest rain will fall overnight and may include some thunder.
By morning, it will be departing the eastern shore…
Rainfall POTENTIAL
The latest run of the GFS Model (most consistent) pushes over 2 inches of rain for much of our region. This would help put a dent in our drought.
Drought Report
Click to see the breakdown per state.
Temperatures Wednesday
Morning
Afternoon
Increasing clouds should dim the sun making it feel cooler.
7 Day Forecast
After this storm passes, we see seasonal temperatures for Thanksgiving then colder this weekend. The next chance of rain will depend on the organization of multiple elements for Sunday.
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Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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