Monday Afternoon Update: November 20, 2023
The storm we have been talking about for a week is now taking form in the central US. The impact for you really depends on its timing.
It will affect travel for a large area, but mostly in the form of rain. There will be the first taste of winter for some areas in a quick hit.
In this report, I want to focus on the larger storm for the Eastern US. My home base is in the Mid-Atlantic, but there will be travelers in all directions. Below, I have a more local approach to the key time frames and rain totals.
Thanksgiving Thursday looks dry and cool but a bit less chilly than first thought. Then, we can look ahead for a glimpse at another storm at the end of the weekend.
Monday Afternoon Set Up
The storm is located north of Dallas, TX. Rain does reach from the Gulf Coast to the Canadian border as the Low Pressure is still developing.
Severe weather with possible wind, hail, and even tornadoes will affect the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
Locally, clouds are on the increase today, helping to keep the chilly feel in the air.
Storm Simulation: Tuesday Morning to Thursday Morning
As this Low Pressure develops, moderate to heavy rain will fall across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast into Thanksgiving morning.
Snow and ice might briefly fall in the high mountains of western MD and PA, but any stickage on the roads would be more likely from the Poconos to Central New York and New England. Also, across the Canadian Border, just to be respectful to our neighbors.
Key Time Frames
1 PM Tuesday
Low Pressure will pass EAST of Chicago and have brief snow on the back end. Icy spots will be limited above 2,000 Ft in Maryland and central Pennsylvania.
Steady rain will be spreading across Baltimore and along I-95.
7 PM Tuesday
The heaviest rain will reach The Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Snow and ice could accumulate from the PA Pocono Mountains to central New York.
7 AM Wednesday
Rain will be ending across central and eastern Maryland/Delaware. It will last longer across the Carolinas to Florida.
Snow and ice may be accumulating in northern New England.
7 PM Wednesday
Lingering rain will come to an end overnight across the Carolinas and eastern New England.
10 AM Tuesday
Rain is expected to begin for metro Baltimore and Washington. Steady rain to the west will mix with some sleet for locations above 2,000 Ft in western Maryland.
This does not support icing, but a few pockets across the highest mountain passes could hold some on the roads.
1 PM Tuesday
Steady rain should be spreading across central Maryland and Virginia. At this point, I-95 travel will be wet and last through the night. It will include Philadelphia and New York during the afternoon.
Pockets of sleet and snow still in far western Maryland and across central PA from State College to Williamsport, but little impact on most roads.
10 PM Tuesday
The heaviest rainfall is expected to last overnight. Snow could be an issue across the Poconos, Catskills of New York, and into northern New England.
7 AM Wednesday
Rain should be ending in central Maryland but could linger on Delmarva and up I-95 to New York and New England.
We are still looking at a widespread of OVER 1 inch of rain. Heavier amounts are expected from central Maryland to central Virginia. This is GREAT NEWS for the recent fires burning across Shenandoah.
Click the map to see the breakdown per state.
We will be dry and cool, but not as cold as first thought.
Tolerable for the area Turkey Trots.
This may turn out to be a seasonal day.
Thanksgiving Weekend Storm
This second surge will develop Saturday in the Southern US and then enhance as it passes north to New England.
I DO NOT TRUST long-range modeling, so I am keeping this vague for now. Just keep later Saturday and Sunday in mind for end-of-holiday travel, especially for New England and a second hit of snow inland.
In Case You Missed It:
OTHER Winter Outlook Reports:
El Niño Winter Updates
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.