November 22, 2023
Wednesday Morning Update
The rain that fell and peaked overnight was the first soaker we have had in a long time. Rainfall totals did exceed 2 inches across much of our region.
A dominant weather feature this morning is the leftover moisture and low visibility!!!
The rain is exiting the coastal areas this morning, and then we look west for the next front to increase our winds during the afternoon.
Temperatures will remain near normal through Thanksgiving and then take a big drop over the weekend.
Baltimore’s BWI reported 2.20”.
Many areas surpassed 2 inches, and most of the region reached over 1 inch. This may dent the drought but will not end it.
Coastal Flood Advisory Around the Chesapeake Bay.
THICK FOG– I did not put this on the map, but it should be considered for travel this morning.
The storm has shown a few things to note:
It arrived and is departing faster than model guidance suggested.
The rainfall did meet or exceed expectations.
Gusty winds will build in today and begin to drop temperatures during the afternoon.
The peak temperatures of the day.
Cooling early with the brisk wind.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 35ºF
Record 15ºF in 1951
Normal High in Baltimore: 55ºF
Record 76ºF 1940
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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Chilly for the area Turkey Trots, but not as cold as first thought.
Nearly seasonal.
There will be a coastal storm (that may miss us), but it will pull down much colder air from Canada behind it.
The core of this colder air/Arctic Blast will be Monday night into Tuesday Morning.
At this time, the computer guidance seen here from the GFS Model has the storm missing us by staying off the coast.
Like the last storm similar to this, we may still see some showers from the front arriving from the west.
Colder weather will be arriving in waves. The first will be this weekend, then again next week.
That storm for Sunday does look like a miss for now, but I do not trust the modeling… It may still provide us with showers… So, I kept the chance at 30%.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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