November 19, 2023

Sunday Morning Update

Yesterday brought a high of 60ºF to Baltimore’s BWI as we return closer to normal mid-November weather. The colder trend will continue for a couple of days, then a welcome storm will arrive on Tuesday. The rain may be heavy, which is needed, but also may affect travel plans ahead of Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving Week Storm

We are narrowing the expectations for this storm and the original solution does seem to be the most likely. Rain will arrive Tuesday, with the heaviest rain at night and into early Wednesday. This is most likely to be followed by dry and colder weather on Thanksgiving.

Morning Temperatures

Colder air is spreading in… Some areas may have similar temps in the afternoon.

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure has brought us a clear sky and seasonal temperatures. A colder air mass will arrive tomorrow, just ahead of the developing storm. That will reach us Tuesday mostly with rain by Tuesday afternoon. There may be some wintry mix at the start… in the mountains. See the storm forecast below.

Afternoon Temperatures

Drought Report

Click to see the breakdown per state.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY November 19

Sunrise at 6:54 AM

Sunset at 4:50 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  36ºF

Record 19ºF in 2014

Normal High in Baltimore: 56ºF

Record 77ºF 1928

Winter Outlook Reports:

El Niño Winter Updates

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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Temperatures

Monday Morning

Monday Afternoon

Increasing clouds should dim the sun making it feel cooler.

Holiday Storm Simulation

Tuesday Morning to Wednesday Evening

After all the flipping from the GFS Model, this solution seems most likely.

An all rain event for most. If there is any mixing at the start, it will be in the mountains. Then a slushy snow and mix Tuesday night from the Poconos to Central New York.

Snapshot Tuesday Afternoon

Rain will be developing by mid-day and expanding in the afternoon.

If there is any mix or snow at the start, it will be in the higher mountains from West Virginia through Western Maryland and Western Pennsylvania.

Closer Look

Tuesday Afternoon

Developing steady rain will be moderate to heavy at times.

Tuesday Night

Steady and heavy rain will fall overnight.

Wednesday Morning

The rain may still be with us in the morning but will be moving away.

Wednesday Night

Rain may linger longer at the beaches during the afternoon, then ending at night.

Rainfall POTENTIAL

The latest run of the GFS Model (most consistent) pushes over 2 inches of rain for much of our region. This would help put a dent into our drought.

Thanksgiving Thursday

Despite what I showed from the GFS Model in my prior report, it is most likely that the storm will move away and leave us with a cold and dry day.

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

7 Day Forecast

I’ve included the potential for rain to last into Thanksgiving, but kept the odds at 60%. I would not promise that yet.  Our computer guidance is having trouble validating itself.

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Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

Faith in the Flakes Gear

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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