November 17, 2023
Friday Night Update
This is NOT a forecast! I DO NOT buy into this yet! I am following up on my report from two nights ago where I highlighted how long-range forecasting often does not play out. The GFS Model showed snow with the storm prior to Thanksgiving 8 days away, then a day later it disappeared. Well, it is back AND I AM STILL NOT SOLD!
This was the GFS Model comparison I showed in my prior report.
This is where it gets interesting!
7 AM Tuesday, November 21
This is a 90-Hr Forecast from Friday morning… Now showing snow.
I still DO NOT BUY THIS… But I wanted to show you. If this persists another day, it may be worth considering.
Temperatures Tuesday Morning
This supports the potential for stickage inland where the freezing line appears just north and west of Baltimore.
UPDATE: THIS HAS ALREADY CHANGED BACK TO ALL RAIN
Click here for my Saturday Morning Weather Report
10 AM Tuesday
Still snowing NORTH of Baltimore?
1 PM Tuesday
Still snowing NORTH of Baltimore?
7 PM Tuesday
All rain. This is when the heaviest rain is expected, regardless of the solution.
Animation Tuesday Morning to Thanksgiving Thursday Morning
This is a faster solution, ending the rain on Wednesday morning and maybe not as cold on Thursday morning??
Compare 1 PM Tuesday: GFS Model to the European ECMWF Model
The GFS shows the onset of snow, while the European is holding on to the warmer and all-rain solution. The GFS has actually been performing better all Fall, so this is worth watching to see if it holds with the colder air.
This new solution shows the storm moving much faster, sending the rain away by this time. That would make for improved conditions for holiday traffic.
Storm 2: SUGGESTION
Weekend After Thanksgiving
We need rain and this would help. It may also be cold enough for a larger winter event across upstate New York into New England.
Animation Friday Night to Sunday Night
7 PM Saturday
If you are traveling to New York or New England, this may impact you. Again this is more than 1 week away, so it is only a SUGGESTION!!
I will give an update in my Saturday morning report. I also will post my winter outlook this weekend.
El Niño Winter Updates
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Winter Outlook Reports:
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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.