November 17, 2023
Friday Morning Update
Our area is experiencing both a drought and some smoke from wildfires in the mountains. It was more prevalent yesterday, and some of that pollution has mixed with pockets of fog this morning.
A cold front is on the way tonight. The rain will fall apart, but the winds will shift as the cold arrives from the Northwest.
Needed rain is on the way with a larger storm early next week. At this time it looks like a Tuesday and Wednesday event, then turning much colder for Thanksgiving.
The wildfires have sent smoke into Maryland and some particles may be mixing with the fog again this morning.
Click to see the breakdown per state.
Smoke is still an issue in the Virginia mountains. While there are pockets of fog this morning, more clouds will dominate the afternoon ahead of the cold front. This will not bring much rain, but some showers overnight.
The coastal storm east of Florida is not going to link up with the cold front, rather it will push farther east.
The cold front will arrive overnight. Some rain showers are possible, but this system will be falling apart.
Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track
The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.
Sunrise at 6:52 AM
Sunset at 4:51 PM
Normal Low in Baltimore: 36ºF
Record 20ºF in 1996
Normal High in Baltimore: 57ºF
Record 75ºF 1896; 1928
Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.
Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow
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Still a hint of a wintry start inland… I would focus more on the rain event and timing.
This continues to look like mostly a Tuesday to Wednesday event. It will be followed by cold and dry winds for Thanksgiving.
This big travel day will begin with heavy rain across the Eastern US. A wintry mix will fall over interior New England.
Clearing out and turning much colder.
Snow will fall in the western Maryland mountains.
The latest run of the GFS Model (most consistent) pushes over 2 inches of rain for much of our region. That would help put a dent in our drought.
Here we can see the brief mild push ahead of the storm and then the collapse with arctic air behind it.
Most of the week ahead will bring us near or below seasonal temperatures.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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