Weather Update For Rain Monday Evening And Outlook This Weekend

October 9, 2023

Monday Afternoon Update

The wide-view weather map looks a lot like a winter storm in Canada. This has snow around it, well to our north, and Lake Effect Rain. It is also what has been governing our cool temperatures, and Fall feel to the air.

The upper-level winds around this storm will help steer a quick-moving, clipper-like rain event for our region later today and tonight. I want to address this with Live Radar and then leap ahead to the next weather event this weekend.

I have had a lot of questions about the next storm, and I always caution against promising anything 5 days away. But what I do see is the more likely timeframe the bulk of any rain may affect us. More on that with the maps below.

Monday Afternoon Weather Map

Low Pressure spinning in Canada is the core of cold air flowing over the eastern part of North America.

I’ve annotated Lake Effect rain and the upper-level winds steering the small Low-Pressure system in the Ohio Valley that will move our way later today.

Satellite Loop

This helps show the circulation flowing around the larger Low Pressure.

Local Loop

Clouds are on the increase, with rain not far behind spreading across the mountains.

Live Radar Widget

Use the controls to zoom in or pan. Rain will show up better on the radar as it crosses the highest mountains. The distant and rugged environment does not allow for the most reliable returns on radar.

Computer Model Simulation

HRRR Model 3 PM to Midnight

There will be a few hours of showers, and some may be moderate at times. It could be enough to affect after-school sports.

Snapshots

5 PM

Rain will be approaching Frederick from the west. It should be over I-81.

6 PM

Rain reaches the western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington.

7 PM

Urban areas and surrounding get wet between Annapolis and the PA boarder.

8 PM

Showers for a few hours.

Looking Ahead: Weekend Storm

GFS Model Friday Evening To Sunday Evening:

Friday should be DRY!

This is a weather system that will build in on Saturday morning, and then the bulk of the rain will fall through the afternoon and evening.

Sunday will likely taper to cool winds and showers across Delmarva AND to the west in the Mountains. The population center around Baltimore and Washington are likely to be in the middle, with maybe a few isolated showers.

Local Look

Saturday Morning

Rain building in across central Maryland early, then expanding East.

Saturday Afternoon

I plan to be part of over 4,000 cyclists in the Seagull Century 100-mile bike ride between Salisbury and Assateague Island.

Sunday Afternoon

Scattered showers may be more prominent across Delmarva AND in the western mountains. While urban areas in central Maryland may be mostly dry, we can’t rule out some isolated showers as well with the cool, unsettled winds.

7 Day Forecast

Following our first true Fall airmass, there will be more sun and some warming midweek. The next weather system is shaping up to be a storm with rain next weekend.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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