September 12 Hurricane Lee Track Near New England And Local Storms Then Cooling

September 12, 2023

Tuesday Morning Update

Lee is still a headline even as it barely hangs on to Major Hurricane status. The turn north will weaken the storm, but the influence of other systems may bring this very close to New England. The very edge of the cone of uncertainty has Boston and Cape Cod included, but it is likely to stay east with the outer edge clipping the Northeast US this weekend.

Locally we are still in the muggy air. Scattered showers will develop again this afternoon. They will increase tonight and tomorrow morning with a stronger cold front that will bring in a new air mass and Fall Feel to the air for the rest of the week.

Amazing September 11 Photos From New York City

Captured by Janet Shearer at 7:25 PM

Earlier a Full Arch Rainbow was on display

Hurricane Lee Satellite Loop

Holding at Category 3, Hurricane Lee has winds of 115 mph. It may hold the intensity for another day, then start to weaken as it travels over cooler water left in the wake of Franklin and Idalia.

• Hurricane Force Winds reach 80 miles from the center.
• Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 185 miles from the center.

National Hurricane Center Advisory

5 AM Update

• LOCATION…24.0N 65.4W
• ABOUT 575 MI…925 KM S OF BERMUDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…948 MB…28.00 INCHES

Forecast Track From The National Hurricane Center

We see the Major Hurricane Intensity holding for a few days… with a build back to Category 4. A close pass to Bermuda, still to the west.  This will weaken as it moves north.

Longer Range Guidance

GEPS Member Spread

We continue to see a turn to the North AWAY from the US East Coast. This plot now shifts the final landfall west to eastern New England.

Forecast Animation:

HAFS Model Tuesday to Saturday Night

The track to the north seems to get jogged left/west when close to New England this weekend. The landfall may happen between Maine and Nova Scotia, but after being downgraded over the cooler water.

Saturday Snapshot

High Pressure over Labrador Canada may help with the final steering. This is still expected to be just east of New England, but close enough to still bring some impact.

ECMWF Model Forecast

This solution is one of the farthest West.

Snapshot Saturday

This is a very close approach but not the only solution.

GFS Model

The same time frame but much farther North and East with this solution. This explains why there is such a wide cone of uncertainty farther out in time. Also why this is not a promise for New England.

However, coastal flooding, gusty winds, and outer rain bands will affect the coast. This may behave like a strong Nor’easter for them.

Morning Surface Weather

We still have a stationary front over our region and a series of cold fronts to our west. This will ignite more showers and storms this afternoon. However, our better chance will be overnight and early Wednesday. This will usher in a cooler Fall-Like Pattern.

Afternoon Temperatures

This will be our last warm and humid afternoon for a while.

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Radar Simulation

WRF Model Noon to Midnight 

The short-range models continue to underperform, so we may see more activity than this in the afternoon. The main storm risk and heavy rain will be with the cold front overnight.

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 12

Sunrise at 6:45 AM

Sunset at 7:20 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  60ºF

Record 43ºF in 1917

Normal High in Baltimore: 81ºF

Record 97ºF 2019

New Report: Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs

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Temperature Forecast

Wednesday Morning

Still warm and muggy.

Morning Radar

Showers will linger to start the day.

Wednesday Afternoon

Starting to get into cooler air.

7 Day Forecast

Once that front reaches the coast, it should both steer Lee away AND usher in cooler early Autumn weather for us. A long stretch of sunny days is expected. Some mornings will be in the 50s, perhaps 40s well inland!

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I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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