September 11 Monday Evening Update
Hurricane Lee is still a major hurricane but has been challenged by outside forces. The latest update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) limits strengthening but maintains Category 3 for a few days.
It is turning North and what I have mentioned in many reports is now in the NHC update: Lee is likely to move over cool Sea Surface Temperatures in the wake left behind both Franklin and Idalia.
Important Note: While Lee is expected to weaken later in the week, it is also expected to significantly increase in size. This is common with tropical systems as they lose strength moving north. Hazards will extend well away from the storm center by the end of the forecast period.
The risk to our Mid-Atlantic region of the US coast is only for rip currents and coastal flooding. The concern now with the adjusted forecast track this weekend has shifted a little to the West. While the center expectation is over the ocean, the Day 5 Cone of Uncertainty and larger size includes Boston and Cape Cod by Saturday.
You may see media highlighting Boston as I did in this post. I want to point out that it is within the cone but that does NOT mean they will get a direct hit. However, they may realistically get the outer bands of rain and definitely high waves from a minimal Category 1 hurricane or downgraded tropical storm this weekend.
Discussion From The National Hurricane Center
Lee continues to exhibit a double eyewall structure as reported by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and seen in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall is open on the south side, but the outer eyewall is completely closed and has contracted slightly from the earlier NOAA P-3 aircraft mission. The minimum pressure is the same as before, 948 mb, but the initial wind speed is nudged downward to 100 kt based on the aircraft data.
The next Full update will be at 11 PM
The updated intensity forecast keeps this at Category 3. Notice the slow forward movement through Wednesday. Then the Thursday time frames spread out, with increased distance on Friday and Saturday as Lee speeds up.
It will weaken in the cooler water to a Category 1 when passing west of Bermuda and racing north close to Eastern New England this weekend.
Note: The wide Cone of Uncertainty, which includes Boston – BUT DOES NOT PROMISE IT!
This is the 126 Hour Forecast showing it heading to a location south of Cape Cod.
This is the end point of this model plot. It is 5 days away and at the edge of marginal reliability. High Pressure in Eastern Canada is expected to reach a position that may steer Lee closer to the New England coast.
The timing of this weather system AND the forward moment of Lee are the wild cards to see how they truly will interact.
I will explore beyond this but with a very cautious perspective.
This model is still suggesting a trend into Nova Scotia, Canada.
The adjustment with this storm is in relation to two factors:
The forward speed of Hurricane Lee has slowed down, so it will arrive later.
The cool pattern/trough we expect to protect is here in the Mid Atlantic…. It will then pass by and allow Lee to sneak in after… even getting pushed closer to the coast.
The GFS is suggesting the core of Lee will be just to the Southeast of Bangor, Maine. Still not making landfall but dangerously close.
This may help give a perspective of the decaying storm and tight rainfall impact.
This may be the closest pass to the Mid-Atlantic. Hurricane Lee should be down to Category 1 at this time and at least 500 miles or more off the coast.
Peak waves may be 8 to 12 Feet high, with concern about tidal flooding.
This is the question about New England. This model is playing off the GFS Global Guidance. So, the location puts this close to Cape Cod.
The Gulf of Maine may have 12 to 20-foot waves.
The Mid-Atlantic waves may still be 8 to 12 Feet high and behave like a strong Nor’easter.
Atmospheric Memory: This is projected to reach the same region that both Major Hurricane Franklin AND Hurricane Idalia also traversed. This will be something to watch through the Fall and into Winter for any further weather patterns that may result.
I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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