Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11 PM September 8

Friday Afternoon Update

For the second day in a row, we have the risk of developing storms that may turn severe. A stationary frontal boundary is stalled over our region and will work with the heat and humidity to build up storms that could turn severe.

This setup is a little later than yesterday. Storms are more likely late afternoon through this evening. Perhaps some lingering storms overnight as well.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERTS Reminder:

A Watch is for a broad area. This would be for a higher POTENTIAL of severe storms. NOT A PROMISE.

A Warning is issued for active storms in progress. These will be tracked for around 45 minutes or so across counties and specific towns in the path.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 11 PM

The potential exists for storms to form. Not all, but some may produce damaging winds over 58 mph, hail over 1 inch in diameter, isolated tornadoes, and or flash flooding.

I have a list of the counties included by state below the Live Radar.

3 PM Weather Setup

This stationary front will be with us through the weekend, so we may have to continue and deal with this risk each afternoon and evening.

Satellite Loop

Here we can see the flow from South to North.

Over Delaware, there was already a severe thunderstorm, which can be tracked with the explosive cloud expansion after 1 PM.

Live Interactive Radar and Lightning

See the setup and forecast maps below.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Counties Include:

MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLEGANY             ANNE ARUNDEL        BALTIMORE

CALVERT              CAROLINE            CARROLL

CECIL                CHARLES             FREDERICK

HARFORD              HOWARD              KENT

MONTGOMERY           PRINCE GEORGE’S      QUEEN ANNE`S

ST. MARYS            TALBOT              WASHINGTON

PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BERKS

BUCKS                CARBON              CHESTER

COLUMBIA             CUMBERLAND          DAUPHIN

DELAWARE             FRANKLIN            FULTON

HUNTINGDON           JUNIATA             LACKAWANNA

LANCASTER            LEBANON             LEHIGH

LUZERNE              MIFFLIN             MONROE

MONTGOMERY           MONTOUR             NORTHAMPTON

NORTHUMBERLAND       PERRY               PHILADELPHIA

PIKE                 SCHUYLKILL          SNYDER

UNION                WAYNE               WYOMING

YORK

VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALBEMARLE            ARLINGTON           AUGUSTA

CLARKE               CULPEPER            FAIRFAX

FAUQUIER             FREDERICK           GREENE

HIGHLAND             KING GEORGE         LOUDOUN

MADISON              NELSON              ORANGE

PAGE                 PRINCE WILLIAM      RAPPAHANNOCK

ROCKINGHAM           SHENANDOAH          SPOTSYLVANIA

STAFFORD             WARREN

VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE

ALEXANDRIA           CHARLOTTESVILLE     FAIRFAX

FALLS CHURCH         FREDERICKSBURG      HARRISONBURG

MANASSAS             MANASSAS PARK       STAUNTON

WAYNESBORO           WINCHESTER

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

This Slight Risk is Level 2 of 5. It is a potential and NOT a promise. There will be scattered thunderstorms, some of which may reach severe levels.

These may produce winds over 58 mph, hail over 1 inch in diameter, isolated tornados, or even flash flooding.

HRRR Model Simulation

4 PM Friday to 2 AM Saturday 

This is still underperforming, but still a guide for the formation. I would expect more than shown here.

We do see the best chance for metro Baltimore after 9 PM, with lingering storms after midnight.

Snapshot at 10 PM

Snapshot at 11 PM

Snapshot at Midnight

Looking Ahead

Temperature Forecast

Saturday Morning

Saturday Afternoon

GFS Model Through Saturday Through Friday

We will remain unsettled with a chance for storms each day and evening. This will be mostly pulsing with the heating of the day.

I am showing the extended look into next Friday so we can see how this should steer Hurricane Lee (right side) away from the East Coast.

7 Day Forecast

The same unsettled pattern that will bring us a chance of rain each day will also help to steer Hurricane Lee off the coast.

The rain risk does not promise you will get it each day, but it is worth considering in your plans.

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I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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