August 28 Local Rain Showers Plus Idalia Forecast To Be A Major Hurricane Before Hitting Florida

August 28, 2023

Monday Update

There is a lot to talk about as more schools in central Maryland begin today. Temps locally will be cooler with more clouds and some rain trying to advance from the south this afternoon. We will be in the mix of showers and some thunderstorms for a few days. Then cooling to end the week as Hurricane Idalia passes to the south. That will be followed by summer heat by Labor Day.

The tropics do need some attention and I have a focus on that below. Tropical Storm Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane in the Gulf and then make landfall in Florida.

Hurricane Franklin is already at Category 3 and passing west of Bermuda this week. Both will make for rough water off the east coast all week.

Tropical Satellite Snapshot

More on the tropics below.

LOCAL WEATHER

Morning Surface Weather

High Pressure in New England has helped to shift the winds from the East and Northeast. That has brought in cooler temps and clouds.

A weak system from the south is trying to bring in some rain. Nothing heavy at this time, but showers may spread into central Maryland this afternoon.

Live Radar Widget

Compare to the Forecast Simulation Below

Radar Simulation Monday Noon to Wednesday Noon

This is a long loop, but I wanted to show you that rain on each day does not mean all day!

Snapshot at 4PM

Rain is expected to spread into parts of Central and Southern Maryland to Delmarva.

Snapshot Tuesday at 4 AM

The better chance for rain and storms may be before sunrise.

Snapshot Wednesday at 4 AM

The better chance for rain and storms may be before sunrise again.

Temperatures

Monday Afternoon

Tuesday Morning

Tuesday Afternoon

Tropical Focus Below

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY August 28

Sunrise at 6:301AM

Sunset at 7:44 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  65F

Record 48ºF in 1986

Normal High in Baltimore: 85ºF

Record 101ºF 1948

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Tropical Storm Idalia

This is rapidly developing as seen on satellite with better organization. It is now expected to become a major hurricane this week before landfall.

Satellite Loop

This storm looks healthy and will be running into very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. There is concern that it may end up stronger as we see with each update creeping higher.

Morning Snapshot and National Hurricane Center Observations

• LOCATION…20.1N 85.2W
• ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH…100 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB…29.21 INCHES

Forecast Track And Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…

* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel

* Isle of Youth Cuba

* Dry Tortugas Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…

* Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida

* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge

Major Hurricane Franklin

Located in the Atlantic, winds are up to 115 mph and it will make a turn more north and strengthen into a major hurricane  It is forecast to miss the United States early next week, but send high waves to the East Coast. It will be closer to Bermuda.

Morning Snapshot and National Hurricane Center Stats

Update at 5 AM EDT Thu Aug 26

• LOCATION…27.2N 70.8W
• ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
• ABOUT 505 MI…810 KM SW OF BERMUDA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…115 MPH…185 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…956 MB…28.23 INCHES

Tropical Satellite Loop

Hurricane Force Winds extend 30 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Force Winds: Extend 150 miles from the center.

COMBINED Forecast Track and Advisories From The National Hurricane Center

Notice the parallel curve of both storms. The cross over will lead to rough water off the east coast all week. This may affect some boat and cruise traffic. Surfers will love the waves, but rip currents will be dangerous.

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

7 Day Forecast

We will have scattered showers and storms until mid week. At this point, it looks like Hurricane Idalia will hit Florida and pass off the South Carolina coast missing us. We may actually get nicer weather from it to end the week. Then heating up on Labor Day weekend.

EARLIER THIS MONTH:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

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EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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