July 7 Humidity Remains High As Severe Storm Risk Goes Up This Weekend

July 7, 2023

Friday Morning Update

More heat and humidity make this a standard July weather setup. There is some direction in the ambiguous pattern as we head into the weekend.

Today there will be more scattered pop-up storms and it is nearly impossible to pin down specific locations and times. I have three models to show the variations.

This weekend, the storm risk will shift to the eastern half of our region, so it will be drier farther west.

Sunday is our trouble day. There is a risk for severe storms as the coverage will be more widespread, then we get a chance to dry out next week.

Morning Surface Weather

There are some weak boundaries in our region today that will help to lift the humid air. This is why we expect more clouds and thunderstorms today of the “popcorn” variety. That means anywhere and anytime this afternoon with the heat of the day.

This focus will shift to the eastern half of our region tomorrow, then we get a more widespread outbreak on Sunday with an increased chance of severe storms.

Afternoon Temperatures

Many areas will reach into the 90s.

Storm Forecast

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

Radar Simulation

NAM 3 Km Model: Noon to 10 PM

I chose this since it is the middle of the pack with activity. It is impossible to pin down where individual showers will pop up given the weak and broad unstable environment. However, we can look for showers to start by noon, peak around 4 to 6 PM, then settle down with sunset.

Snapshots at 3 PM

To highlight why we cannot determine precisely where and when storms may pop, let’s compare this model with two others.

NAM 3 Km

WRF Model

The suggestion for the most widespread activity.

HRRR Model

The least amount of suggested activity.

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY July 7

Normal Low in Baltimore:  68ºF

Record 53ºF in 1980

Normal High in Baltimore: 89ºF

Record 104ºF 2012

Saturday Weather

Morning Temperatures

Afternoon Temperatures

Radar Simulation 10 AM to 8 PM

The trigger in the atmosphere may be in places over central Maryland near I-95. This is where we see the flare-up of showers.

• East/South: More Storms
• West/North: May Remain Dry

Sunday: NOAA Severe Storm Risk

A cold front will make this a very active weather day. Storms will have the risk to turn severe across central Maryland and southward.

Please keep in mind that this is a few days away. The expected severe storm region may shift and expand.

This means thunderstorms may contain damaging wind, large hail, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes.

Rain and Storm Forecast Sunday Through Tuesday

The very active storm development will be on Sunday and may be at any time of the day. This means more clouds and cooler temperatures.

Monday may still have some thundershowers, followed by High Pressure and sunshine for the middle of next week. This will be accompanied by the 90s again.

7 Day Forecast

At first glance, this is a typical July weather forecast. The heat and humidity will spark more showers and storms. Sunday will be the most active, and as a result of earlier showers, the coolest.

When the sun returns, temps will jump back to the 90s next week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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