A New Tropical Storm In The Gulf Upgraded To A 70% Chance

Thursday, June 1, 2023

On this first day of Hurricane Season, there is a storm trying to form in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This cyclone has been initially labeled Invest 91L, and an Air Force Reconnaissance flight has recently determined better organization. There is a 70% chance this becomes a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. However, it will really need to happen by tomorrow given the outlook.

Air Force Reconnaissance Flight

The cross-section along with satellite, buoy, and ship observations, have determined a large but defined circulation with sustained winds of 35 mph.  This needs to increase above 39 mph to be classified as a Tropical Storm.

The next Hurricane Hunter flight is scheduled for later this afternoon.

Satellite Loop

12 PM to 2 PM EST

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this system to having a 70% chance of developing into a Tropical Storm in the next 48 hours. That would be with winds up to 39 mph. If so, it would get named Arlene, the first on the list for this season.

UPDATE FROM 5 PM EDT

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded this to Tropical Depression Two or T.D. 2

Infrared Satellite Loop

Enhanced cloud tops.

Forecast Model Guidance

The collection of model forecast plots do diverge, but all agree on the push to the south. The importance of this is that there is more wind sheer farther south. So after Friday, the upper level winds will become more hostile and likely tear the storm circulation apart.

Forecast Animation: HWRF Model

2023 Atlantic Tropical Storm Name List

Names are in alphabetical order.

• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Don
• Emily
• Franklin
• Gert
• Harold
• Idalia
• Jose
• Katia
• Lee
• Margot
• Nigel
• Ophelia
• Phillipe
• Rina
• Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney

Also See:

2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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