April 27, 2023
Thursday Morning Update
The turn in our weather may already seem to have been felt, but we are still in transition. The next phase will be a series of storms that bring day long steady and soaking rains. The first will arrive on Friday and will be accompanied by very chilly air. It will feel more like early March rather than almost May.
The second storm will be the stronger one on Sunday. The net result will bring many areas possibly a few inches of rain. Also, coastal areas on the Western Shore of The Chesapeake Bay will have a steady wind flow that could lead to tidal flooding for a few days.
A cool morning but no frost with mid 40s to lower 50s.
We can’t shake all of the clouds, but we have carved a brief dry pocket this morning. However, the roads may still be damp.
We may see a return of showers this afternoon as the atmosphere remains unsettled. A very stormy pattern will arrive from the Gulf Coast region. This will send us two separate storms with steady rain. The first arrives Friday morning.
This will be a dry day, however the unsettled pattern may bring in some showers before the main storm.
We remain below average but this may be our mildest day for a while.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 35ºF in 2001
Normal High in Baltimore: 71ºF
Record 92ºF 1994
Rain will be arriving from the south around daybreak. If you wake up and it is not raining close to sunrise, it will soon after. Then it will last all day.
A steady rain will cover most of the area. Heavier cells in Virginia area expected to move north in the afternoon. These may contain some downpours and lightning/thunder. As you will see below, the temperatures will remain chilly and might even drop from the morning.
A cool start as rain arrives around daybreak.
Temps will be steady or falling slightly through the lower 50s with the rain. These numbers will be 15 to 20 degrees BELOW AVERAGE and more like early March.
Two storms around our weekend. First arrives on Friday, the second will be later Sunday into Monday. In between there will be dry hours during the weekend. However, it will remain unsettled with a chilly and damp feel.
One thing I’ve seen often has been the speeding up of weather systems. While we see the Low Pressure overhead at night, the heavier rain may end up dominating the day, especially the afternoon.
The total weekend rain is likely to bring a widespread 1 to 2+ inches of rain. There may be some locations with over 3 inches…. The heavy rain pockets are subject to change from what we see here, all based on the specific line up of the storms and embedded cells.
The following weather system will tap into that core of colder air. The net result will bring us more rain, AND higher elevation snow. This may produce some accumulation for Garrett County Maryland and the high ridge in West Virginia.
If this was winter…
We can say that, but it’s not. Yes, it would have brought us snow in February or March. But in early May, just a chilly and damp pattern. There may be snow in the high mountains and near the Great Lakes. Locally we may have a morning or two with inland frost.
This overall pattern is cool and wet. The main rain events will be Friday and Sunday, with showers on the other days… but not all wet. We will have some dry hours, especially on Saturday.
Next week will bring snow to western Maryland AND possibly a morning or two with frosty mornings inland.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.
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