Friday Weather: Ice Storm Warning In The Mountains With Chilly Rain Ending With Thunder Elsewhere

March 2, 2023

Thursday Night Update

There is still a little winter to report in our region, and the storm will be a factor for all of us on Friday. The same old storm track to our west will bring most of our region a chilly rain. However, a brief start with an alert inland and possibly a line of thunderstorms for much of our region at night.

This will bring a moderate to heavy rain with many getting close to or over 1 inch.

It will feel uncomfortable, as below we can see the rain timeline and key time-frames with the temperatures.

Winter Weather Alerts

• Ice Storm Warning: Garrett County until 7 AM to 11 PM
• Winter Weather Advisory: Cumberland to Harrisonburg: Travel on I-81 may have icy pockets.
• Skyline Drive may have restrictions.

Brief View Friday

The ice problems will be in the mountains. Metro areas and most of Maryland will get a chilly rain beginning close to noon.

It may start with sleet or wet snow over the inland northern suburbs. This will not last long and will not stick on pavements.

Thursday Night Set Up

After high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s today, cooler air is settling in tonight just ahead of the storm.

Low Pressure is located around Dallas, TX and will be heading north towards Detroit. It will bring a cluster of severe storms to the Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Friday.

In our region, it’ll be just cold enough for ice in the mountains, with mostly a chilly rain for the rest of us.

Storm Animation

7 AM Friday to 7 PM Saturday

The winter zone will be on the edge of Detroit, New York, and Boston. Inland will get more snow and ice, including interior Pennsylvania.  Here in the Mid Atlantic, we get a chilly rain during the day, then possibly strong thunderstorms at night with the cold front.

Radar Simulation (Closer Look)

8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday  (see key time-frames below)

Key Time-Frames

8 AM

Radar Simulation

Temperatures

Chilly, but the freezing air does not make it in here.

12 PM

Radar Simulation

Expecting the arrival around lunchtime. That is a vague few hours around noon. Often we end up seeing the start 1 to 2 hours earlier than shown.

Temperatures

Still chilly, but the only freezing temps will be in the mountains where there are weather alerts in place.

7 PM

Radar Simulation

Rain will be settled in through the evening. Freezing rain will remain in the higher mountains.

Temperatures

Notice the urban temps remain in the lower 40s, with the inland northern suburbs dropping into the upper 30s. But check out the next time frame!

11 PM

Radar Simulation

The final push of the storm will be the cold front. This will have a history of severe storms from earlier in the day back in the Ohio Valley. There is a chance this may still produce a brief intense squall with lightning and thunder. You can plan for gusty winds for sure!

Temperatures

A surge of warmer air ahead of the Cold Front may push the 60s into Southern Maryland up to near Kent Island. Metro Baltimore may briefly get to the 50s, just as the cold front and colder air arrives.

Precipitation Total

Saturday Morning

This will end with mountain Lake Enhanced snow. A total of 1 to 3 inches is possible for the ski areas to help freshen up the slopes.

What Follows?

The immediate weather outlook is mild into next week.  Farther out, NOAA is now on board with a colder trend for the rest of the month.

Explore More: NOAA March Outlook Colder

Also See:

Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts

See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.

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STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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My Winter Outlook: Not A Typical La Niña!

I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/

Also See The Winter Outlook Series:

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/20/atmospheric-memory-suggests-active-winter-storm-pattern-outlook/

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/21/winter-outlook-2023-from-noaa-very-different-than-farmers-almanacs/

Farmer’s Almanac Comparison

Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs

Triple Dip La Niña Winter

https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/

Woolly Bear Caterpillars

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/

Persimmon Seeds

Winter Weather Outlook: Persimmon Seeds And Snow Folklore

Click to see Top 20 and MORE

https://justinweather.com/2022/10/28/winter-weather-folklore-top-20-and-more-outlook-signals-from-nature-for-cold-and-snow/

Normals And Records: Maryland and Baltimore Climate History

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