January 21 2023
Saturday Morning Report
The weather pattern is changing and the transition is slow, but it will be noticeable. I have been focused on two weather events and need to state that the first one on Sunday may bring a brief snow or mix to start mainly north and west of Baltimore. Most of central Maryland will generally see rain, but near and north of the Pennsylvania line is where there is a better chance for a start with flakes or sleet pellets.
The second storm on Wednesday will be larger and have colder air in place. The timing in the morning will help as snow will try to spread in for more of central Maryland.
We have a rare late start to our season, now tied for 6th latest first measurable snow. As a consequence, I continue to exercise caution with mention of stickage or accumulation. I believe that prudent approach is best and computer model guidance will over do snow totals… So in short, it is too early to give any more than what might fall and when.
Latest Measurable Snow In Baltimore
Wind gusts will increase from the North at 10 to 20 mph
Normal Low in Baltimore: 25ºF
Record -6ºF in 1985
SNOW: 5.1” 2014
Normal High in Baltimore: 43ºF
Record 66ºF 1921
This will be a rain event, but there is still some variability as to where the snowflakes may fall at the start, and could possibly even end with snow showers or flurries on Monday.
Canadian GEM
This is the most aggressive plot with a start as snow or sleet in parts of Central Maryland and more ‘onset’ snow in southern Pennsylvania.
This solution has shifted that snow/sleet to the MD/PA Line. A push of about 10 to 15 miles north of the prior plot.
This is our short range high resolution model and may take over at this point. It also shifts that snow/sleet onset to the state line.
I must reiterate, there is limited cold air and this was not intended to be a stickage event. We still have Wednesday.
The Wednesday event will interact with Strong High Pressure sending Cold Air farther south from New England. The morning timing makes this more interesting to focus on.
The freezing line to start the day will be close to Baltimore and across the Chesapeake Bay.
The strength of the High Pressure to our north will determine how deep the cold air may reach, which will in turn determine how much potential snow we may receive.
A few hours of snow opens up the potential for stickage and accumulation. I would venture to stay on the lighter side for now. More importantly, I would IGNORE any suggestions of snow totals by any model or human source. There are too many factors such as timing, warm ground, etc., to consider.
We are in a pattern change with the storm tracks. That exception is showing up, but the truly cold arctic air is missing for now. There is colder air on the way just beyond this outlook through next weekend.
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I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
