Thursday Afternoon Update
This report is not a first, but personally, I hope it is the last of this kind this winter. It is mid-January, and yes, I am reporting about thunderstorms later this evening and tonight. This is a brief update to show the short-range simulation and live radar to track the rare spring-like weather in the midst of winter.
The complex weather system entering the Appalachian mountains has been responsible for thunderstorms and a severe weather outbreak in the south. While the energy has peaked, some of it will be left over as it crosses our region tonight. The net result as Low Pressure passes through maybe some thunder and lightning. Meanwhile, upper-level energy will catch up to produce a few hours of snow in the mountains. Let’s take a look.
2 Hours ending at 2:30 PM
There is a lot of moisture and energy with this storm system. Just missing the cold air for now.
Some showers and thunderstorms have already moved across the Chesapeake Bay. More is expected.
Low Pressure will track across the mountains this afternoon and across Maryland overnight.
The first rumbles were heard between Annapolis and Baltimore around 3 PM.
4 PM THU to 1 PM SUN – ECMWF Model
This storm will race through and likely be ending Friday morning. After the brief snow builds in across our mountains, there is a chance for a Nor’easter to form and briefly clip eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod with their first true burst of snow this winter.
Use this to compare to the forecast maps below.
4 PM THU to 6 AM FRI – HRRR Model
See the key snapshots below.
Showers will be expanding through the late afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain across metro areas will more likely be after 8 PM.
There may be an hour buffer for model error, but this evening is when we are most likely to get the heavy band of rain. This may contain some pockets of lighting and thunder.
Low Pressure will be passing through central Maryland. The core energy may contain the last burst of heavy rain and isolated rumbles of thunder.
At this time farther west, the snow will be developing in the mountains.
This is a big holiday weekend for skiing and Snowboarding. The good news is that big mountains will get a fresh coating PLUS cold air to help with machine snow and grooming through the weekend.
Seven Springs, Wisp, Snowshoe and the vicinity will be in good shape!
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
