December 29 2022
Thursday Morning Report
There is no sugarcoating it; however, for some, this may be more than sweet enough: We are entering a warming pattern, and it will start today. “Something strange is afoot at the Circle K”- Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure.
We can already see the signal with a very odd flip of the script for winter. At 6 AM the thermometer in McHenry (over 2,200 Ft) was almost 20 degrees WARMER than Ocean City (sea level and by the water).
It is not often we see a temperature spread like this in late December!
Headlines
December (so far) running -2.2 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE… Our biggest anomaly all year.
Click To See the NOAA Outlook for a Warm Start To January
While we enter a warm few weeks, the storm pattern is hitting the west coast. We can see one of those events in Denver where there is snow this morning. That storm track will push well north of us, which is why warmer air will be moving in.
Temperatures across the nation this morning are showing the push of warmer air ahead of that storm… and there is definitely a lack of arctic air that has been here for the last week.
Don’t worry, it will come back.
Already seeing some 50s on the map.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 27ºF
Record 2ºF in 1917
SNOW: 4.9” 1935
Normal High in Baltimore: 45ºF
Record 77ºF 1984
Temperatures will be warmer in the morning than the afternoons over the last weekend.
Even warmer and some spots could aim for near 60ºF.
Saturday Morning to Sunday Morning
Rain will build in during the afternoon and evening.
It is likely to be raining at midnight, then cut off before morning. Strong winds will help to clear us out and warm urban areas from the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
I put 57ºF on the 7-day for Sunday, but if we get more sun, BWI is likely to boost above that mark.
Low Pressure in northern New York will actually bring rain and possible flooding for all of the snowbelt areas this weekend.
Full report from last night, includes signals for the return of winter mid month.
I’ve looked in on the European Model to show a few days in the middle of next week with rain. So when we see a warm up, it may come with wet weather as well…
Also notice the hint of snow next weekend. I will NOT suggest that for us at this time, but still watching that event for the evolution as the ingredients and timing are fine tuned. I must however point out that it is possible to get snow in the middle of a mild pattern in winter.
Note:
In my next report I will look into the longer range and a look back at some other winters that looked warm (and done) around the New Year, then flipped to a snowy pattern for the second half of January. FITF
The focus for now is on the warm up.
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
