December 18 2022
Sunday Morning Update
Cold air will be felt today with gusty winds, but the mother load of arctic air is set to arrive Christmas weekend. This may be the coldest in 5 years for many areas. In between, there will be a major winter storm affecting a large area on Thursday and Friday. My latest thoughts on the mix for The Mid Atlantic. I have been doubting all snow, but it may start and end that way for many.
We are in Holiday Week: Hanukkah begins tonight and Christmas is next weekend. A lot of weather will happen in between.
The cold air in place is seasonal, but colder winds will hold the temps down this afternoon.
A colder push of air will increase this afternoon.
Seasonably cold temperatures.
It will feel up to 10 degrees colder.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 29ºF
Record 7ºF in 1919
SNOW: 4.0” 1916
Normal High in Baltimore: 47ºF
Record 72ºF 2006
Freezing temps should reach the beaches. Teens in the mountains with a fresh blanket of snow.
Many areas may remain in the upper 30s or colder.
The European ECMWF and American GFS Models are in a little better agreement
The ECMWF (right) is still warmer, and brings the start as rain with inland snow/ice. The GFS (left) is colder for us with a snow or mix closer to Baltimore for the arrival. I am partial to this notion based on systems tending to arrive a few hours earlier than models have been showing.
The ECMWF (left) shows the cold air catching up to the moisture and ending with a period of snow.. even in metro areas. I support this solution due to the faster speed.
The GFS (right) does also show some change over but is nearly 12 hours later. It seems too slow.
The evolution of the storm on this model has been more consistent. I still have some questions, but this does seem like the more likely set up. Notice how widespread the impact will be: Snow and ice will affect Chicago, the Great Lakes, and New England Thursday Night. This becomes an east coast concern for flash freeze on Friday.
I am leaning towards the GFS solution because of the earlier arrive to catch up to colder air in place. This is NOT a promise for now, but what I am looking for the Euro to catch up to. So we could have a snow or mix start in central Maryland.
The Euro is faster, allowing the cold air to catch up and bring a few hours of snow early in the day. This would fit prior storms moving faster… but also introduce flash freezing and some accumulation.
This is going to be a major arctic outbreak. Watch the animation from Thursday Morning to Christmas Morning.
Winter Solstice is Wednesday!
Thursday and Friday remain a WILD CARD. I would not endorse anyone locking in on a promise now. Definitely do not consider a promise for totals. Just consider a possible impact on Thursday to Friday for travel.
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
