December 18 2022
Sunday Evening Update
I just wanted to give a quick update on the winter storm for my overnight friends. I still believe it is a little too early for specifics, but with a little more consistency I have a little more confidence in the main influential parts of the weather event at the end of this week, and the arctic air that will arrive for Christmas weekend.
If this is your first time reading my posts, I will review my storm protocol at the bottom of this post. Please just know it is important to me to share information and NOT HYPE expectations. Once we see the Monday morning model package, I do believe we can start to refine with better likelihood for Thursday and Friday.
Quick Take: There will be a large storm with wide impacts across the US for planes, etc., Thursday and Friday. The main concern I see is Friday and timing out the arrival for the arctic air. This will determine both if we can get accumulating snow AND ALSO a Flash Freeze on roads. That may be the biggest concern for the holiday travel.
European ECMWF (LEFT) Vs. GFS (RIGHT)
I will take a closer look at the ECMWF Model below…
The ECMWF took the lead early, but the GFS has fallen in line with consistency from the prior few model runs (every 6 hours). The main difference I see now is the start time and precipitation type around central Maryland/Southern PA.
The ECMWF brings this in later on Thursday afternoon with mostly rain, but snow or mix now well west of I-81. The GFS is bringing this in mid-morning to early afternoon… But COLDER! It does have the snow line closer to metro Baltimore… I need to remind all of us again that the GFS also showed snow for this past Thursday’s event which did not happen. Something to consider….
Most of the storm for the Big Cities and the Coast will be rain! The snow and ice will be in the Great Lakes and Mid-west Thursday into Friday.
The ECMWF continues to bring the arctic air in sooner! We see it through the Chesapeake Bay, catching up to the moisture by early afternoon. This brings a few hours of snowfall and a risk for flash freezing on roads.
The GFS is still about 6 hours slower with the progress of the storm complex. It brings in the freezing line to I-95 in Baltimore by 7 PM. However, a warm rain will continue a few more hours through Philadelphia, New York, and Boston.
Since the ECWMF has been more consistent and has a better history of accuracy, let’s first take a look at how it handles the storm.
7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday
This is a little faster and brings the core Low farther East. It allows the transition to colder air sooner, and allowing a few hours of that in place to drop snow to end the storm.
7 AM Thursday to 7 AM Saturday
This is slower, allowing the core Low to move farther inland and keep the warmer air in longer. The result is more rain.
At this point, I think it is a safe call to continue to put the European Model at the lead. I am keeping my wild card for the earlier Thursday start with some snow or mix simply because many systems this Fall have arrived earlier than models projected.
The cold front is shown reaching the Chesapeake Bay, with moisture still around to fall as snow for the last couple of hours.
Now THAT’s a COLD FRONT:
The danger here is the potential for a Flash Freeze. This is when the air cools down so fast, that any moisture on roads can ice up before it has a chance to dry out.
The cold front moves east of Philadelphia and Trenton, but along the New Jersey Turnpike not yet to New York City. The amount of falling snow is subject for debate in metro areas, but likely to end with stickage in The Poconos.
The freeze gets to the cities. Baltimore at 32ºF, with Ocean City at 41, and McHenry in western Maryland at 5ºF.
The cold front crosses New York and heads into New England.
Heavy snow in the Poconos, with heavy rain still in most of New England.
Snow showers near Baltimore likely to not amount to much, but anything to keep roads from drying out as the cold air settles in, allows for Flash Freezing.
The deep freeze moves in!
I am just showing Saturday Morning, but this is like to repeat for Christmas Day as well.
Baltimore reaches the mid Teens, with Ocean City and coastal areas in the Mid 20s.
I will have an update in my Monday morning report, then we get into more specific higher percentage details in the afternoon/evening.
From my perspective, this is the protocol I follow and I hope it helps as I dive into the update and expectations.
December 5th Snow In Baltimore And The Start Of Faith In The Flakes FITF
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out.
Winter Outlook 2023 For Snow Not Typical La Niña Plus Polar Vortex Disruption
Atmospheric Memory Suggests Active Winter Storm Pattern Outlook
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. (You might be seeing a lot of commercial snow removal people out this Winter).
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
Winter Weather Folklore Top 20 And More Outlook Signals From Nature For Cold And Snow
