October 2, 2022
Sunday Morning Update
The remains of former Hurricane Ian are no longer tropical, but still trackable. We call this the ‘ghost’ and it is now part of a new storm developing off the Mid Atlantic coast that will affect us today and for a few days to follow.
This will be like a chilly Nor’easter with increasing rain and wind starting today. For over 40,000 people going to the Ravens game in Baltimore, it will be chilly and wet. The wind may play a role in the passing and kicking game.
The Wind Advisory has been expanded (from last night’s report) to include Annapolis to St. Mary’s on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay. In addition, A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday.
Here’s a look at the radar, simulation, and wind forecast.
The wind direction is key! It will be FROM the North-Northeast. That will help push water OUT of the Chesapeake Bay, however some sloshing on to the western Shore could lead to local higher water there. But this is NOT A SURGE!
Wind Restrictions likely to continue on the bridges.
Coastal beaches including Delaware and Ocean City MD will experience a few days of continued beach erosion.
The Ghost of Ian is helping to reform a new coastal Low. This is why the winds will increase, the rain will enhance, and the temps will remain chilly (50s).
Not much movement on the thermometers today. In fact, temps may actually get cooler this afternoon falling through the 50s.
WEATHER DISCUSSION
Let’s look at the wind first, then the rain.
Remaining chilly or even getting cooler
Normal Low in Baltimore: 52ºF
Record 35ºF in 1997
Normal High in Baltimore: 74ºF
Record 99ºF 2019
A large cool pocket of air in the jet stream is nearly closed off. This is making it to the coast, where the contrast with warm ocean water will enhance the spin. This is where the ghost of Ian will revive as a new organized storm that could linger off the Mid Atlantic coast for a few days.
Winds 2 PM Sun to 2 PM Tue
The streamline winds show the flow from the Northeast, with the strongest winds along the coast.
Surface Weather: 8 AM Sun To 8 AM Wed
Here we can see the Low Pressure develop and try to swing back to the coast… keeping the risk for rain and chilly winds in place for a few days.
The model plots are considerably chilly. In fact I wonder how valid this may be, so I had to make some moderation on my 7 day graphic below… However, there is potential for us to remain lower.
Temps remain chilly through Tuesday, then we get rewarded with sun and 70s for at least one or two days later in the week.
Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school
