Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/28/2024 06:40:03 am
Temperature

48°

Cloudy with Mist and Fog

47°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

96%

Feels Like

46°

Wind (NW)

5mph

Air Pressure

29.99

Sun
Sun Rise

06:56 AM

Sun Set

07:26 PM

Day Length

12:30 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

11:05 PM

Moon Set

08:19 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

21°


(1982)

87°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

October 2 Ghost Of Ian Reviving As Coastal Storm: Wind Advisories

Coastal Storm
Maryland Weather
climate data
Forecast
Warnings

October 2, 2022

Sunday Morning Update 

The remains of former Hurricane Ian are no longer tropical, but still trackable. We call this the ‘ghost’ and it is now part of a new storm developing off the Mid Atlantic coast that will affect us today and for a few days to follow.

This will be like a chilly Nor’easter with increasing rain and wind starting today. For over 40,000 people going to the Ravens game in Baltimore, it will be chilly and wet.  The wind may play a role in the passing and kicking game.

The Wind Advisory has been expanded (from last night’s report) to include Annapolis to St. Mary’s on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay.  In addition, A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday.

Here’s a look at the radar, simulation, and wind forecast.

Weather Alerts

The wind direction is key! It will be FROM the North-Northeast. That will help push water OUT of the Chesapeake Bay, however some sloshing on to the western Shore could lead to local higher water there. But this is NOT A SURGE!

Wind Restrictions likely to continue on the bridges.

Coastal beaches including Delaware and Ocean City MD will experience a few days of continued beach erosion.

 

Morning Surface Weather

The Ghost of Ian is helping to reform a new coastal Low. This is why the winds will increase, the rain will enhance, and the temps will remain chilly (50s).   

 

Morning Temperatures

Not much movement on the thermometers today. In fact, temps may actually get cooler this afternoon falling through the 50s.

 

WEATHER DISCUSSION

Let’s look at the wind first, then the rain.

Wind Forecast

8 AM Sun to 10 PM Sun

October-2-weather-wind-forecast-sunday

Peak Wind Gusts Sunday

  • Metro areas up to 35 mph
  • Annapolis through Delmarva: 40 to 50 mph. This is where we see Wind Advisories. 
  • Beaches: 50 mph or higher are possible 

Rain Outlook

Compare the Live Radar to the simulation below 

Live Radar

 

NAM 3 Km Model

10 AM to 10 PM Sunday

October-2-weather-rain-sunday

Temperatures at 4 PM

Remaining chilly or even getting cooler

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY October 2

Normal Low in Baltimore:  52ºF

Record 35ºF in 1997

Normal High in Baltimore: 74ºF

Record 99ºF 2019

 

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Average Frost And Freeze Dates in Maryland and Pennsylvania

 

STORM EVOLUTION

A large cool pocket of air in the jet stream is nearly closed off. This is making it to the coast, where the contrast with warm ocean water will enhance the spin. This is where the ghost of Ian will revive as a new organized storm that could linger off the Mid Atlantic coast for a few days.

GFS Model Guidance

Winds 2 PM Sun to 2 PM Tue

The streamline winds show the flow from the Northeast, with the strongest winds along the coast.

October-2-weather-ian-storm-coastal-noreaster-wind

GFS Model

Surface Weather: 8 AM Sun To 8 AM Wed

Here we can see the Low Pressure develop and try to swing back to the coast… keeping the risk for rain and chilly winds in place for a few days.

October-2-weather-ian-storm-coastal-noreaster

 

Rain (Additional) Through Tuesday

Temperatures 

The model plots are considerably chilly. In fact I wonder how valid this may be, so I had to make some moderation on my 7 day graphic below… However, there is potential for us to remain lower. 

Monday Morning 

Monday Afternoon 

7 Day Forecast

Temps remain chilly through Tuesday, then we get rewarded with sun and 70s for at least one or two days later in the week. 

 

 

PATTERN CHANGER?

Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter

CONNECTION TO WINTER?

If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

 

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

 

Related Posts

 

NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms

 

 

Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days

13_Tropical Storm Formation Sep11_20

 

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