Wednesday September 28 2022
The eye of Hurricane Ian have been upgraded at 7 AM: Winds up to 155 mph making this a very dangerous Category 4 and almost a Category 5! That eye will make landfall on Southwest Florida today. The final track has shifted and it appears to be heading to Fort Myers with a Storm Surge up to 12 Ft! Then cross Florida to the Atlantic Ocean and a second landfall is possible near Savannah, Georgia.
This is better news for Tampa, but what is about to happen is still horrific. The National Hurricane has been leading their updates with headlines like this:
…EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…
New maps, video, and Live Radar below:
Video: Storm Surge Hitting Key West
This is the 3rd largest storm surge on record measured there.
Key West has recorded its 3rd highest surge ever with the approach of #Ian.
This is what our remote cam captured shortly before it went off-line due to an overall network outage down there.#KeyWest @foxweather pic.twitter.com/qXMK1y1pmN
— Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) September 28, 2022
The forward movement is expected to slow down, making this a longer duration event for Florida. That crawl or stall will also determine when the rain can make it farther north. There is one other new factor more likely today.
The shift of the storm track now includes what we suggested yesterday: A path across Florida that may reemerge over the Atlantic, then ‘may’ make another landfall on the East Coast between Georgia and South Carolina. That is within the cone of uncertainty, but if it should happen it would increase the rainfall potential father north up through the Mid Atlantic.
Let’s take a look:
The fast winds we mention are around the immediate eye wall. The hurricane force winds (over 74 mph) now extend 40 miles from the center, however there are also multiple tornadoes that can track farther away within feeder bands. This was one that hit on the north side of Miami at a small airport.
NEW VIDEO: Over 15 planes damaged at North Perry Airport north side (more possibly on the south side) due to a suspected tornado. #IAN #HurricaneIan
📽️ Video Courtesy TTWN/Steven J Grey pic.twitter.com/W4kQPU3R32— Total Traffic Miami (@TotalTrafficMIA) September 28, 2022
The eye wall may reach the coast around or shortly after noon today! Warnings and Watches are listed below.
This may take up to 36 hours to cross Florida and possibly reemerge over the water of the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. This is north of Titusville and Cape Canaveral keeping the strongest side hitting there. NASA has already postponed the Artemis Launch again for this storm.
If this does reach the Atlantic, it will pick up more water in the from of rain and a storm surge for South Carolina. There may be a curve Northwest, then inland and eventually track north to the Mid Atlantic.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary’s River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary’s River to South Santee River
With respect to forward motions, the RIGHT (Southeast in this case) has the winds and water moving with the forward direction. This will bring the maximum impact to Fort Meyers, Cape Coral, and Naples. The LEFT (Northwest in this case) side has the wind and water flow opposing the forward motion, thus contradicting itself and resulting in weaker impact. This includes Sarasota and Tampa.
STORM SURGE: UP TO 12 Ft!
The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
* Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor…8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee…6-10 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay…4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable…4-7 ft
* Suwannee River to Anclote River…3-5 ft
* Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas…3-5 ft
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Savannah River including St. Johns River…3-5 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington…2-4 ft
* Savannah River to South Santee River…2-4 ft
* East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge…2-4 ft
* Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key…2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line…1-3 ft
* Indian Pass to Suwanee River…1-3 ft
Additional Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall:
* Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima up to 12 inches.
* Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local maxima up to 24 inches.
* Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
European ECMWF Model: Shows move out to Atlantic and then a second landfall near Savannah, GA.
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guidance
GFS Model Guidance:
This model still shows another abrupt turn to the coast SOUTH of Maryland. That would cut off the northern push of heavy rain.
Last night I discussed the rainfall into Maryland. That will be adjusted today to reflect the potential of a second landfall and more moisture.
Hurricane Ian May Help Cooler Pattern Change: Monitor For Atmospheric Memory This Winter
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season.
Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
NOAA Study: Reducing Air Pollution INCREASED Tropical Storms
Atlantic Tropical History: Maps of Origin Regions Every 10 Days
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