May 19 Weather Sunday Starts Foggy The Warming With Sun And Summer Heat On The Way
Sunday May 19 Morning Report The aftermath of the rainy Saturday is plenty of leftover moisture. This has left us with a bit of humidity and areas of thick fog…
Severe Storms Tonight Reach Us Tuesday Morning: New Timeline For MCC
rain timeline
Severe Weather
Forecast
June 13 2022
Monday Night Update
Tonight we can see the eruption of what seems like two storm complexes moving out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At this point if you have followed my last few reports, this is validating the expectation of the storm development.
Our local focus is for the complex to arrive Tuesday Morning! I have a new timeline to share below:
Monday Night Surface Weather
I will continue to focus on this Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC). That is a hyper energized Low Pressure system that is common in summer patterns.
This is when an organized area of severe storms develops on the north side of a Heat Dome or Ridge of High Pressure, which can hold together overnight as it dives around that Ridge to the Southeast.
Evening Satellite Loop 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM
That cluster of storms is the focus for severe storms today, which will will track our way overnight. This will surge with intensity this afternoon and evening.
UPDATE at 5 AM
ARRIVING EARLY…
LIVE RADAR and LIGHTNING MAP
Click for morning report
Is This A Derecho?
Not necessarily, and there is no such thing as a Derecho Watch. It is a term that classifies a rare event, and is a buzz word that gets a lot of attention.
We can have an MCC produce lots of damage without being labeled a Derecho- which is classified when 240 miles of continuous wind damage path, 60 miles wide, with a minimum of 58 mph winds. Often exceeding 70 mph. These produce straight line winds over a large area rather than a confined tornado path.
Storm Reports As Of 9:30 PM
Flooding was extensive in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin with many areas getting over 2 inches or rain.
Widespread hail damage in Southern Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Indiana produced 1 to 2″+ stones.
Chicago had some extensive damage reports with major building structural damage in the city itself. At least one building is believed to have had its roof ripped off.
Southern Ohio had a difference complex produce widespread wind, hail, and flooding. There were a few tornado warnings in that region in the last hour prior to this report.
Forecast Animation: Tuesday 1 AM to 1 PM
Closer Up Slider Below
- Midnight and 4 AM: Some storms may pass through Delmarva, but the main event will be in the morning.
- 6 AM to 8 AM: Western Maryland after sunrise
- 8 AM to 10 AM: Metro Baltimore and Washington
- 10 AM to Noon: Delmarva
Local Radar Simulaiton —>slider
NAM 3 KM Model Tuesday 4 AM to 2 PM
LIVE RADAR and LIGHTNING L
Update at 4 AM – This leading band is arriving EARLY…
I will aim to pot n update around 5 AM- Please check back
Upper Level Winds
This is the snapshot at 10 AM, showing the air speed at cloud level. When we get severe storms, this can be brought down to the surface.
This is also a hint that the fastest winds may be to the south side of the MCC, but the most intense cells will be on the east side or ahead of the main circulations.
850mb Level is roughly 5,000 Ft above the ground.
700mb Level is roughly 18,000 Ft above the ground.
My Take Away:
Some thunderstorms are possible overnight, ahead of the main event.
There will be a large storm clustering the morning, that should be moving out by noon for most. A little later for the beaches.
There will be some severe limits breached, mostly for high winds. Yes, there may be:
- Severe Warnings
- Damage
- Local Flooding
- An Isolated Tornado
- I will aim to post an update around 6 AM to stay ahead of the timing as you wake up and prelate.
Next Update:
I will aim to get a new update and timeline posted around 6 AM Tuesday to stay ahead of any adjustments to the timing and track.
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
