May 31 2022
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and right on cue we have a potential tropical system to track. In addition to being the first event of the season, it can answer the question many have asked:
Can a hurricane cross for the Pacific to the Atlantic? In this case, sort of. Let’s take a look back at what was Hurricane Agatha and may become Tropical Storm Alex:
Hurricane Agatha
Satellite Loop From Monday
The first Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone was named on May 28, 2022 off the coast of Mexico.
This was named Agatha, and it reached Category 2 intensity with top winds of 110 mph on Monday May 30, 2022 (yesterday).
Agatha made landfall at 5 PM EDT near San Pedro Pochulta with 105 mph winds. This was southeast of the Mexican resort city of Acapulco.
It has moved inland and weekend significantly today.
Tropical Cyclone Plotting Map
Tracking former Hurricane Agatha into southern Mexico. It is no longer considered a tropical system, but may emerge in the Atlantic basin and reform.
NOAA Outlook
There is enough spin in the atmosphere, and proper conditions, that this is expected to emerge along the Bay of Campeche of Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan Peninsula later this week.
As a result, NOAA gives this a 70% chance to become a tropical cyclone (again).
Since this will be in a difference open basin (Atlantic) it will be given a new name, Alex.
Close View
Wide View
Computer Model Ensemble Spaghetti Plots
This is an overlay of 24 different model forecast tracks.
The numbers on the lines represent the hour forecast… which I expanded on in the image.
It does look like a pass across southern Florida by the weekend.
How strong will depend in part if this can intensity along the the Bay of Campeche shoreline or wait until entering the Gulf north of Cancun.
ECMWF Model Forecast Animation
Friday 8 AM to Sunday 8 PM
In Case You Missed It..
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Tropical Season Begins June 1
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.