My First Call For Snowfall Sunday February 13

February 11 2022

Friday Afternoon Update

This is not an easy post to write while it is sunny and temperatures are in the 60s, but I must address the snow on Sunday. After all, it’s been talked about all week, and we will be in an abrupt return to winter.

When we have these winter warm ups ahead ahead of a snow event, it is very practical to consider if the ground may just simply melt the snow when it arrives.  That is a consideration worth applying here.  But we will also be getting snow overnight Saturday into Sunday morning with temp falling. So we will have the optimal opposing force to get get stickage.

Let’s first look at the temps, then one model snow animation, following with my first call for snowfall.  

Temperatures 1 PM Friday Afternoon

This warm afternoon and warm day tomorrow will present a complication for stickage. But as many of us remember, we can easily flip the switch from this to snow in our region.

Temperature Forecast Animation

2 PM Saturday  to 7 PM Sunday 

The high temps on Saturday will be in the mid 50s, then watch the drop through Sunday. I know the images are scrolling fast, so see the snapshots below. 

Temperatures Snapshots

Sunday Midnight – 12 AM

The freezing line approaches the northern/western suburbs from Baltimore.

Sunday Morning- 7 AM

The freezing line shod push southward of Annapolis and Easton. It will take some time for the ground to chill, but there will be snow falling to help. Depending on the snowfall rate before 8 AM, then there is a chance to overcome the warmer ground before the sun angle gets too high (after 8 AM).

Sunday Noon – 12 PM

Sunday Evening – 7 PM

Simulation Timeline  Animation 

NAM 3 Km

I switched to this short range higher resolution model that performs best within 48 hours. It was also the model that correctly called the recent ice (and delayed cooling) events. 

10 PM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday

This develops the initial snow sooner, or just before minding. But with the falling temps, I would not consider any impact until well after midnight.

Note: I will have an hourly timeline slider in my next report. 

How Much Snow? My First Call

Please note this is for what may be measured.

• What actually lays and stays on pavement is likely to be a little less for you to shovel or plow.
• Biggest impact should be in the morning.
• Snow lingers longer into the afternoon on Delmarva, but the warmer ground will play a bigger role there with how much stickage they may get.

What are ‘They’ Saying?

I love (and hate) that line.  But I have choses to embrace it to apply to the other models and event National Weather Service. I will gather what I can an include it in my next report. 

Summary:

This is NOT a major event, but it will be a dramatic flip from our warm day today.  The biggest impact should be on Sunday morning.  The NAM does linger the snow later into the afternoon on Delmarva, but their ground should be warmer and more likely wet roads… 

However, the falling temps will allow for a chance of icing in the evening. We can tackle that as we get closer. 

ALSO SEE

What is Faith in the Flakes: History of December 5th Snow

ALL FITF GEAR

FITF THUNDERSNOW

Winter Outlook Series:

My Call For Snowfall

Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts

Winter Weather Page – Lots of resources

Solar Cycle Increasing Sunspots Suggests More Snow

Comparing 4 Different Farmer’s Almanacs: Majority colder winter outlook than NOAA

NOAA Winter Outlook- But Read The Fine Print

Signals For Early Start To Winter In November

Winter Outlook Series: La Nina Double Dip

Nor’easters May Give Hint For Winter La Nina Pattern

Winter Folklore Checklist

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.

#FITF