Tuesday February 1 2022
Evening Report
Earlier this afternoon I showed two winter weather events form the GFS Model. This included rain turning to an ice storm on Friday morning, then a coastal Low with moderate to heavy snow on Sunday. Now that I have had a look at the European Model, I wanted to show you the agreement and the differences.
Before getting in to it, I should address a common question: Hey Justin, why are you taking about snow on Sunday? Even one of my local TV buddies as razzing me about that. Truth is, Sunday is 5 days away. That is within my window of comfort to address a winter storm. What I contrast below will show why it is still a wild card.
7 AM Thursday to 10 PM Friday
This animation shows a trend to a colder solution. This didn’t have much wintry precipitation yesterday, but now is clearing showing a long duration of icing (pink). Let’s take a closer look and comparison below.
I’ve highlight locations that might be impacted by the icing. It is important to note the more likely impact region would be west and north of Baltimore based on this model. But I added the GFS Model timeline slider below so you can compare them to each other.
This shows the colder air arriving at least 3 hours earlier overnight. This is due to a deeper cold air mass, which then pushes farther south than the Euro…
Compare the temps behind the front at 7 AM Friday:
Reminder that the GFS Model had a few winning forecasts last month. However, the last weekend blizzard prediction was won by the European Model.
Last night and earlier today I gave credit to the GFS Model for being persistent in bringing in cold air and icing Friday morning. Now we see the Euro playing catch up…
Also See: My prior report for the GFS Breakdown of freezing rain and ice
This includes an idea of how much ice may fall.
My due diligence is to also show the comparison for the second event.
In my prior repair I showed the GFS Model brining a follow up coastal Low with moderate to heavy snow on Sunday.
Well, here’s the European (left) compared to that GFS (right).
What a HUGE difference. It’s tough enough to plot how far the icing impact will reach on Friday, here is the difference between NOTHING and a Snow Storm.
I know it is my job to digest the models and then put out a forecast I see most likely. I like to show you behind the scenes and view what I do. This lets you see the possibilities and even spot the trends to get a handle or think ahead the modeling.
The GFS has been consistent with this event as well, which is why now less than 5 days away it is worth repeating as a possibility, but not a promise at this time.
I will have the overnight runs to show you in the morning. At this stage, I am still looking for two things:
Tuesday is Groundhog Day. Phil’s track record is only about 39%, but I will be rooting for more winter regardless.
Legend has it, If you wear White (of FITF ) on February 2, you will root on winter. If you wear Green, that helps to bring on early spring.
Want to join in? Let me know…
Faith in the Flakes
Last Winter Recap: My Old Outlook And Your Grades Of My Storm Forecasts
*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
#FITF
