Thursday Evening Update February 15

The good news is that the data on this next weather event has been pretty consistent. It also helps that we have had colder days and freezing temps at night, plus the timeline overnight in the dark hours will help make a solid expectation for snow.

The quick call is for snow to start close to midnight Friday night and wind down in the morning within an hour or so after sunrise. 

Snow may start sticking right away, or within an hour in the warmer urban and bay locations. Moderate to heavy snow will pick up in a hurry and last for a few hours.

I am seeing a general consensus of 2 to 4 inches of snow for most of our region. Some higher spots may reach 4 to 6. Some spots in Southern Maryland where temps may struggle to drop cold enough could be closer to 1pr 2  inches.

The high mountains in Western Maryland may get 6 to 10 inches.

See the maps below.

Storm Simulation: ECMWF 7 PM Friday to 7 PM Saturday

Snapshot: 4 AM

The closest pass of Low Pressure and the heaviest snow may fall between 2 AM and 6 AM.

Winter Weather Alerts

Winter Storm Watch in Maryland

This new update calls for an increased expectation of snowfall rates 1 to 2 inches per hour. Spots may exceed 4 inches up to 6 inches in this area. Far western Maryland mountains may reach 10 inches or more .

The current Winter Weather Advisory for Kent and Queen Anne’s County was issued by their local NWS Office in Mount Holly, NJ.

Local Radar Simulation:

10 PM Friday to 12 PM Saturday 

Snapshots

Midnight 

Temperatures 

7 AM 

Temperatures 

10 AM

Snowfall Potential Model Plots

As expected, there is some discrepancy. I would still expect a range of 1 to 4 inches across much of the region. 

I will post my call for snowfall map in my next report.

ECMWF Model

NAM 3Km

GFS Model

This seems to be the lowest call and might have initialized poorly. It’s the wildcard for now. 

Recent Snow Reports

February 13 Snow Report Maps

January 19 Recap

Click here for the maps and full report

Jan 16 Snow Report

Click here or the map to see: The Snow Report Ending Jan 16

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Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

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RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF