Thursday January 11 2024

Two storms in the next 5 days will have very different outcomes. The first event looks like a repeat of our last storm, but the good news is that it will not be as extreme for us. However, there will still be an impact from high winds, heavy rain, and high water on the Bay. Multiple Flood Alerts have already been issued.

The wind will be strong, but not as intense. Still the results may affect travel over the bridges and bring some sensitive trees or power lines down again.

The second storm next week will be part of the Arctic Blast! This system has shown promise for regional snow, until today. One model has ‘lost’ the storm. I will explain and compare below.  The arctic air that follows is the most impressive I’ve seen in a few years (if it verifies).

Wind Advisory/Warning

• Annapolis to Southern Maryland and Delmarva: Winds gusting to 55 mph
• Inland winds will still gust 40 to 50 mph even where there is not advisory.
• Mountains: Winds gusting to 60 mph or high on the western facing slopes.

Wind Forecast: Noon Fri to Noon Sat

We can see the front move through close to midnight, shifting the winds to the West after the storm passes.

Snapshot Friday Night

Ahead of the squall line, winds will be FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST

This is the same direction as the Tuesday storm. This will push water up the Bay AND cross winds with the Bay Bridge.

FLOOD WATCH/COASTAL ADVISORY

Inland rainfall may exceed 1 inch.

Coastal areas may have water rise up to 3.5 Ft above normal in places like Annapolis and on the Eastern Shore.

Rain Forecast

Storm 1: Friday Afternoon to Saturday Night

This will be a large storm and major snowmaker for the Northern US.  It looks like a repeat of what we just had, but It might be less extreme for us.

Snapshot Overnight

The timing of the squall line may be faster than the GFS suggests.

Closer Look

4 PM Fri to 8 AM Sat

Notice the rain arrives after dark in central Maryland.

The squall line may arrive before midnight.

Snow will follow in the western Maryland mountains by Saturday morning.

Snapshot 11 PM

I’ve noted the likely faster arrival than suggested here. We had the storm arrive around 2 hours faster on Tuesday.

Next Storm: Snow Tuesday?

The GFS Model has come on strong with a potent system, but the European Model has lost it. To be honest, the mid to long-range wins recently go to the GFS. However, the short term victory went to the European with the snow (or lack thereof) last weekend.

Mid-range models have a tendency to flip or lose systems in the 3 to 5-day time frame. This is a transition of calculations in the formulas until the data gets into the North American Grid.

The upgrades to the GFS in the last year have shown some promise, and I have to play the middle road for now until we see a trend one way or another. Let’s compare the products below.

GFS Model

Monday Morning to Wednesday Morning

Snapshot Tuesday Afternoon

European ECMWF Model

The model has lost the storm, but I am not so sure yet.

We still see a thick jet stream induced snow band.

I would watch for the trend back west and maybe finding the support again for a larger system.  This would show up in a day or two if it happens.

Monday Morning to Wednesday Morning

Arctic Blast Next Week:

Arctic Temperatures

This is the GFS Model Temperature Outlook for Baltimore at BWI next week.

It is going ALL IN on the arctic air. I need to add some caution to it verifying this extreme, but this is the most impressive outlook I’ve seen in years!!!! Even if the reality verifies that it is not as intense, we are still in for WINTER making a move!

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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