September 22 Tropical Storm Conditions This Weekend

September 22, 2023

Friday Morning Update

The storm off the coast is still being called Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. It is not a tropical storm (yet) but is already a dangerous system and getting stronger. This storm without a name has winds of 50 mph and tropical storm winds over 39 mph reach 240 miles away from the center.

The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings up the coast into Southern Maryland. The National Weather Service is handling local alerts and Wind Advisories extend farther north into Anne Arundel County.

There is going to be a storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay, Potomac River, and coastal Ocean City and Delaware up to 3 feet. I have some Tide Tables below for key locations.

Quick Notes (full forecast below)

• Rain will move in from the south tonight.
• Saturday will bring the heaviest rain. It may come in bands, so there could be lulls at times. Strong winds and heavy rain may reach the peak Saturday night.
• Isolated Tornadoes are possible near the center.
• Waves on the Bay could top at 3 to 6 Feet.
• Highest water from surge will depend on track and timing. At this time the high tides Saturday night is when I expect the worst.
• Sunday the remains of this storm will spin overhead and fade. Lingering showers and less wind still may keep the Ravens and Commanders football games wet.

Satellite Loop

National Hurricane Center 5 AM Update

• LOCATION…30.5N 75.0W
• ABOUT 330 MI…530 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
• ABOUT 325 MI…525 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
• MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
• PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
• MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

Forecast Track From the National Hurricane Center

Local Forecast Maps Below

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…

* Duck North Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia

* Chesapeake Bay south of Windmill Point

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

* Portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Cape Fear North Carolina to Fenwick Island Delaware

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

* Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…

* Surf City to Duck North Carolina

* Chesapeake Bay north of Windmill Point to Smith Point

* Tidal Potomac south of Colonial Beach

* Remainder of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

Storm Surge Forecast: Chesapeake Bay

High Tide Tables

Here are Three Key Points Of Interest. The High Tide Saturday Night is the one where we may see the highest water.

Additional Tables for Maryland can be generated here: Saltwater Tides

Baltimore: Fort McHenry

Annapolis

Ocean City Inlet

Flooding here is likely all day Saturday

Local Watches and Warnings

Tropical Storm Warning

Maryland: Calvert, St. Mary’s, Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, and Worcester

Wind Advisory: Includes Anne Arundel County: up to 50 mph. This may get expanded to include more counties in central Maryland.

Storm Surge Warning: Southern Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Areas Up to New Jersey.

Gale Warning Up To Northern Chesapeake Bay: Waves up to 4 Feet. Wind to 45 knots.

Coastal Flood Watch: Potomac River up to Washington, DC.

Morning Surface Weather

Low Pressure is located 325 miles south of Cape Hatteras. While it has 50 mph winds, it does not have a closed warm tropical core yet. There is a chance it organizes today and may get named Ophelia.

• The main concern is the track north AND the wind FROM THE EAST.
• The winds will increase today and peak Saturday afternoon and night.
• The rain may reach southern Maryland by this evening and spread north tonight.

Afternoon Temperature Forecast

Afternoon Rain Simulation

The leading edge may reach Ocean City later this afternoon.

Forecast Animation and more Key Time Frames BELOW the Climate Data

CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore

TODAY September 22

Sunrise at 6:54 AM

Sunset at 7:04 PM

Normal Low in Baltimore:  57ºF

Record 37ºF in 1962

Normal High in Baltimore: 78ºF

Record 99ºF 1931

New Reports:

El Niño Advisory: First Look At NOAA’s Winter Outlook Expectations

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs

Return to Cold and Snow

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Friday Night to Monday Morning

This covers our weekend and shows three main things:

1. The arrival of rain into Southern Maryland will be AFTER DARK Friday
2. Saturday will be rainy and windy!
3. Sunday once again has the storm stalling. The Ravens Game looks chilly and wet!

Storm Animation: GFS Model

Friday Afternoon to Monday Morning

This latest plot shows the storm lingering with rain on Sunday and into Monday morning.

Temperatures

Saturday Morning

Saturday Afternoon 

Saturday Night

Storm Forecast

Wind Forecast 

Sunday

The remaining Low Pressure, a chilly north wind, and leftover showers are expected for the Ravens game.

Rainfall Potential

Considering that the European model had the storm as a miss, it is now in line with the GFS Model to bring a few inches for most areas.

There will be LESS WEST and MORE EAST

7 Day Forecast

I ran out of time and will not be posting my outlook this morning. I hope you understand.

New Reports:

El Niño Advisory: First Look At NOAA’s Winter Outlook Expectations

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs

Return to Cold and Snow

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

Aurora Photos From Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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