June 20 Weather Cooler With Needed Rain On The Way

June 20, 2023

Tuesday Morning Update

Today will be cooler with more clouds and increasing wind, then we turn the corner and get locked in with many days in a row of rain. The Summer Solstice is tomorrow, but it will not feel like it. So get out today to enjoy!

Before we get into the forecast I want to address two things. First, we NEED RAIN. The wet pattern ahead is exactly what can help our growing drought. The latest from Baltimore’s BWI is a deficit of 9.61 inches for the year. That is a big hole.

The second factor is one I am very well aware of. Last week this wet pattern looked promising then fell apart. It is back and looks rainy for the week ahead. However, I am cautious to promise rain farther out in time given the poor performance of computer model guidance.

The most likely rain will be Wednesday and Thursday, then scattered showers and storms with some gradual warming Friday into the weekend. So if you have party plans you will need to consider this, but no promises can be made for your location or time.

Morning Surface Weather

The best way I can describe this weather pattern is coordinated and sluggish. The combination of strong High Pressure to our Northeast And a stacked Low Pressure (surface low and closed low in the jet stream aloft) will funnel in stronger winds FROM THE EAST.

The net result will be slow-moving and persistent cool and moist air coming our way. This will build in rain for a few days, mixed with some heavier thunderstorms. It may last for the next week and is the best way to dent the drought.

Wind Forecast 8 AM to 4 PM

The wind will be increasing from the EAST today. This will hold down temps AND raise the water level on the Western Shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

Our rain chance is only 20% today, so most stay dry. We will get more rain beginning tomorrow.

4 PM Temperatures

Already a step back from near 90ºF yesterday. More clouds and a cooler wind may hold many in the 70s, but I have to hedge ‘close to 80ºF’ given the warmer tendency on the thermometer at BWI.

Rain Risk

Only about 20% spotty showers today. More rain tomorrow is shown on the maps below.

TROPICAL WEATHER

Click here for the update on Tropical Storm Bret

Winds are still 40 mph but are forecast to strengthen to a hurricane in the next two days.

EXPLORE MORE

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CLIMATE DATA

TODAY June 20

Normal Low in Baltimore:  64ºF

Record 51ºF in 2022

Normal High in Baltimore: 86ºF

Record 100ºF 1934

Wednesday

Morning Temperatures

Warm and humid morning, but with more clouds, temps will not move much.

Radar Animation 8 AM to Midnight

Rain will gradually build in from the South. It should reach central Maryland by the afternoon. Southern Pennsylvania may hold off on the rain until evening.

Wind Forecast/Coastal Flooding

The increasing flow from the EAST will push or slosh more water on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay.

This will produce high water and tidal flooding in prone areas like Annapolis. This may last all week.

High winds and rip currents will be the case at the beaches.

Afternoon Temperatures

With the wind flow and rainfall, temps will be noticeably cooler.

LOOKING AHEAD

Rain Forecast Animation: GFS Model

Thursday to Monday

The rainy pattern that will develop will stay with us for many days. In fact, the foreseeable future keeps periods of rain in place into next week.

Here we see more rain Wednesday into Friday, then we break up to more showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoons and evenings. That will allow for early sun and a warm-up.

Snapshot Friday

Low Pressure near the Great Lakes will be stacked aloft to the jet stream that will keep us cool, and unsettled, with rain pumping in from a Southeast flow.

Rain Potential:

This is the 7-Day outlook. Please note that spotty heavier storms can overachieve totals for some areas.  The general idea is that The Mid Atlantic can receive between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the next week.

7 Day Forecast

This is the weather we need. Many days with periods of rain. It is IMPOSSIBLE to pin specific timing for your plans farther out in time. I would consider Wednesday and Thursday as mostly soakers. Then we break up into scattered showers and stormy waves into the weekend. Please consider that for your outdoor plans so you have a safe cover to get to.

It will turn more humid over the weekend.

The wet pattern should last into next week.

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos, and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes, and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing, and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I needed it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos, when she is able. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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