February 20, 2023
Monday Morning
The clouds have returned. Yesterday brought us breaks of sun and a high temperature of 61ºF in Baltimore before the breeze brought in some chill from the Chesapeake Bay.
We remain mild today, even with more clouds and showers on the way. This week will be all over the place. While we will be mostly warm and get some rain, we could have brief sleet mixing in Wednesday morning, only to be watching for near record warmth on Thursday afternoon.
As for that chance of winter next weekend, I remain very skeptical.
Still mild.
The cloud cover today is from a disorganized system. We remain in the mild flow that will allow our temperatures to reach the 60s again in the afternoon.
A disturbance will arrive produce some sprinkles later this afternoon, enhancing to more widespread rain showers this evening and tonight.
We will remain with the chance for rain showers for a few days as the next storm forms across the southern US. This is the storm that will bring winter back to the Northern US, and pump in near record heat for us on Thursday.
Another mild day, with many back into the lower 60s.
Sprinkles may develop in the afternoon, becoming more widespread light rain through the evening and tonight.
Normal Low in Baltimore: 28ºF
Record 1ºF in 2015
SNOW: 9.9” in 1947
Normal High in Baltimore: 48ºF
Record 76ºF 2018
Remaining mild even with rain showers. The rain does look more likely near and NORTH of Baltimore. But the modeling has missed recent events, so I would not let your guard down for showers across any part of central Maryland.
These numbers are close to normal afternoon highs.
Mild again back into the mid 50s.
The next developing storm may bring us some sleet mixed with the rain showers as it begins on Wednesday, especially in northern Maryland to central Pennsylvania.
A robust winter storm will reach central New York to New England.
This is the storm that will change the fortune for our northern neighbors, but pump in very warm air for our region.
It is VERY LIKELY we will reach the mid to upper 70s. There is a chance we get a record high temperature that day, and remain in the 70s on Friday before the next abrupt change… for another colder weekend.
The big warm up will be Thursday as temperatures will approach one of the oldest records on the books.
It was 78ºF in 1874 on Feb 23. That is the mark to watch! We often end up warmer than models show.
Once again we see the fading of that potential wintry system. This has been the theme all winter. If the trend holds, this system may get lost for a day or two, then creep back. I am still very suspicious about getting much out of this. So I will only show it with high skepticism.
This has the more aggressive snow and mix right across the middle of our region.
This is the more reliable product and has already shifted the event later (overnight) and farther north with only light snow.
Most of this week will be warm. There is a small chance for some sleet at the start of the rain on Wednesday, then we jump to within reach of that long time record high on Thursday.
Next Weekend: Still only a hint, so I would not get too excited about this yet.
Report: Tracking Winds For Movement from the accident to the Controlled Burn Also see Videos Of Toxins in local water in East Palestine, OH.
REPORT: Chesapeake Bay and Ohio Watersheds. Please click here for that report if you missed it.
Winter History: Low Snow And Late Starts
See my research based on Baltimore data since 1883.
Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school 
I see many factors to support colder influence with multiple systems. Early and later in winter. Check it out. https://justinweather.com/2022/11/22/winter-outlook-2023-for-snow-not-typical-la-nina-plus-polar-vortex-disruption/
Winter Outlook 2023 From NOAA Very Different Than Farmers Almanacs
Winter Outlook 2023 Early Look At Snow From Two Farmers Almanacs
https://justinweather.com/2022/09/09/winter-outlook-2023-la-nina-triple-dip-expectations/
If you want a snowy winter, this is what you might want to look for in the rest of the tropical season. https://justinweather.com/2022/08/31/record-august-for-no-named-tropical-storms-closer-look-at-snow-following/
https://justinweather.com/2022/10/25/winter-weather-outlook-from-the-wooly-bear-caterpillar/
