September 24 A Storm On Sunday And Ian May Bring Us Rain Next Week

September 24, 2022

Saturday Morning Update 

There is no doubt about autumn now! Temps this morning dropped into the 40s. We should recover today, but it will take a while to get back close to 70ºF.  Make the most of it because Sunday will bring us showers and a storm line that could turn severe.  The timing may be of added importance for anyone celebrating the start of the Rosh Hashanah holiday. 

We also need to track newly named Tropical Storm Ian. It is expected to rapidly develop to a hurricane and possibly reach the US next week as a Category 3. The long range outlook brings rain our way next weekend. Compare two model plots below. 

Morning Surface Weather

Note: Post Tropical Storm Fiona has crossed Nova Scotia as one of the strongest tropical events there.  I will mark this date and location as a potential influencer for atmospheric memory this winter.  Semi-permanent Lows tend to occupy this region (50N lat/50W long) and dominate a cold pattern for the Eastern US.  

We will get debris clouds mixing with the sun from the system to our west. That will be our storm maker on Sunday.

Morning Temperatures 

Baltimore’s BWI bottomed out at 48ºF. Many inland valley spots between these official locations did reach the lower 40s.

Afternoon Temperatures 

We will have a mix of clouds, which could hold more areas in the 60s.

Tropical Storm Ian: Morning Stats at 8 AM EST

• Warning for Jamaica and Hurricane Watch for The Cayman Islands
• Winds are 45 mph
• Tropical Storm Force Winds reach 45 miles from the center

See the full morning report here. More on the long range rain forecast for us below….

Tropical Storm Ian Named: Forecast Could Hit US As Major Hurricane

CLIMATE DATA

TODAY September 24

Normal Low in Baltimore:  56ºF

Record 39ºF in 1983

Normal High in Baltimore: 77ºF

Record 95ºF 2010

When Is The Typical FIRST FROST?

Average Frost And Freeze Dates in Maryland and Pennsylvania

Sunday Temperatures 

Morning

Afternoon 

Rain Forecast: 

Showers may begin in the morning. As we have seen a lot lately, we tend to get more rain than this model plot shows…

Animation: 2 PM to Midnight

Snapshot at 7 PM

We also tend to get the strong storms about 1 to 2 hours earlier than plotted. Consider metro Baltimore getting storms around 5 or 6 PM, which would bring them into Hagerstown and Frederick 3 to 4 PM, and cross Delmarva during the evening.

Long Range Forecast For Ian

This is the National Hurricane Center forecast plot. Notice there is a wider cone of uncertainty!  The trend has been for the last few storms to verify LEFT or WEST of the track.  That is critical to how strong it could get, where it makes landfall, and the impact for us.

Forecast Track

Computer Model Plots Through Next Weekend

Both the European and GFS (farther west) Models show rain reaching us next weekend. 

European ECMWF Model

Wednesday Evening to Sunday Evening: 

Track in the middle of the NHC plot. Rain reaches us Saturday AND Sunday according to this plot shown below.

GFS Model

Wednesday Evening to Sunday Evening

Track farther west for Florida, then swings through our region faster! Rain reaches us Saturday, but moves away on Sunday according to this plot.

7 Day Forecast

Most of next week will be dry and seasonal, trending cooler. Next weekend is the wildcard for clouds and rain impact from the remains of Ian.

COMPARE TO THE  PAST

If you want a snowy winter, a busy tropical season AFTER a quiet August has done it before.

Record August For No Named Tropical Storms: Closer Look At Snow Following

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