Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Flood Watch Tuesday
Tuesday Afternoon Update July 1 2024 The atmosphere is juicy! Dew points are high in the mid to upper 70s, which means there is the potential for heavy rainfall and…
June 17 2022
Friday Morning Update
Before we get to the weather today and this weekend, I wanted to be accountable for the storms yesterday. While we did have a morning eruption for the second time this week, and some strong afternoon storms, last night fell short.
I had been saying in my reports that I did not trust the short range modeling, and yet I still showed them with a caveat. However last night I fell into the trap.
After going to the movies with my wife, I came out and saw this cluster hammering Harrisburg PA. So, without skipping a beat, I extrapolated that it would drop south into Maryland on par with the original plan.
SNAPSHOT: Thursday Night
However, I forgot that I also mentioned in my report yesterday that there was an indication that the evening line would fade when reaching Maryland. I simply did not trust it. It turns out, the earlier storms helped to stabilize the atmosphere.
Radar Loop Recap
We can see that complex in Southern PA singly fall apart and never reach central Maryland.
In short, I was wrong! if you missed on the storms, you need to water your garden because we will be dry for a while… Father’s Day Weekend is still looking pleasant.
Morning Surface Weather
Afternoon Temperatures
The fringe of that Heat Dome will try to reach western Maryland and northern Virginia. The suggestion for 100ºF is an uptick, and would introduce a higher chance for severe storms later.
Cooler air will hold over Delmarva… But metro areas in between will feel sticky.
Heat Index
Due to the low humidity, this will NOT be a factor from Metro Baltimore to the west and north.
Southern Maryland to the Beaches it will be quite humid. This is what may help some showers pop up later…
Thunder Showers South
Due to less moisture available, the risk of showers will be limited. At this point, the best chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be in central PA, and… Southern Maryland – South of the Bay Bridge AFTER 2 PM.
CLIMATE DATA
TODAY June 17th
Normal Low in Baltimore: 63ºF
Record 47ºF in 1964
Normal High in Baltimore: 84ºF
Record 96ºF 1939
Saturday Temperatures
Morning
A hint of chill in the air inland with the 50s for the suburbs west and north.
Even cooler 40s in the mountains.
Delmarva and the beaches remain summer like into the morning.
Afternoon
This will be about 20 degrees cooler than today.
Wind Animation: 6 AM to 8 PM
Steady Wind From The Northwest
15 to 20 mph; Gusts Over 30 mph
BEACH FORECAST: Ocean City
Paddle Pick This Weekend: Sunday (Not As Windy)
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Looking Ahead: Jet Stream Animation
Saturday Morning to Wednesday Morning
This weekend we will be under the influence of a Trough, response for our cool temps (70s). Next week we get back to the Ridge and warm up by mid week.
7 Day Forecast
After a cool and windy weekend, full sun and warmer to start next week. Then we get to the summer heat and storms by Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30
NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again
Forecast From Colorado State University
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Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Twitter: @JustinWeather
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*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:
I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:
I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell. I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.
I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse.
All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.
There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline.
I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…
It’s part of my charm.
