Conditions: Baltimore, Maryland, 03/29/2024 10:30:03 am
Temperature

51°

Partly Cloudy

29°

Dew Point
Relative Humidity

42%

Feels Like

51°

Wind (W)

8mph

Air Pressure

29.92

Sun
Sun Rise

06:54 AM

Sun Set

07:27 PM

Day Length

12:33 Hours

Difference

2 min 34 sec gain

Moon
Moon Rise

07:00 PM

Moon Set

08:49 AM

Next: Last Quarter

Apr 01,2024

Moon Phase

Waning Gibbous

Climate
Average Low

37°

58°

Average High
Record Low

18°


(1923)

90°


(1945)
Record High
Conditions

Tornado Watch Until 11 PM June 16

rain timeline
tornado
Severe Weather
Warnings

3:30 PM June 16 2022

Thursday Afternoon Update

As expected, we have a volatile situation setting up for this afternoon and tonight. The good news is that you are reading this an aware. The bad news is that the short range modeling is not handling this well. 

There are two more events expected… First with the afternoon heating. Second, with the squall line arriving from the north tonight. 

Any storm has the capability to produce damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornados, and flash flooding. Any storm can produce dangerous lightning. Please pay close attention if you must be outside as many warning are being issued as these storms track through.

So, it will be more nowcasting this afternoon, with some model guidance later. I have included the Love Radar and Lighting Widget below, so if you do not have a good app, you can use it here.

Set Up: 3 PM Temperatures

This contrast is part of the problem. Where the storms passed this morning, temps are still in the 70s.

Where the sun broke out, into the 90s.

The boundary in between will be on the edge of the afternoon storms… 

Severe Weather Alerts: (Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm)

Tornado Watch Until 11 PM – Central Pennsylvania 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9 PM in Western PA

Until Midnight for Central Maryland and Northern Virginia

The National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for much of Pennsylvania.

There have already been Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Maryland and Virginia. NWS Sterling (Baltimore/Washington Office) just added metro Washington and Baltimore to the Watch until Midnight. As you will see in below, we will have storms extended past midnight into Southern Maryland.

 

 

Severe Weather Alert Reminder:

Watch means there is Potential, but not a promise.

Warning: A storm is occurring NOW and being tracked. Specific towns and times will be given.

 



 

3 PM Doppler Radar Snapshot

There was a lot more activity recorded than models forecasted at this time. This is why I do not feel confident in the short range modeling…

See the Live Radar below to track at your own leisure.

 

 

 

3 PM HRRR Model Snapshot 

This model showed some showers, but less impressive.

 

Radar Simulation Animation

NAM 3 Km Model 4 PM today to 4 AM Friday

The main event will be the squall line that passed through southern PA through the end of that 11 PM Watch.  Then entering central Maryland just before midnight, and southward through 4 AM Friday. 

 

June-16-weather-radar-storm-updated-pm-3

 

11 PM Snapshot: Main Event Entering Central Maryland

This is a rough gauge for when metro Baltimore can expect this line.  I would give this a buffer, so prepare between 9 PM to Midnight. That is why I believe there will be an extension one of the Watch Boxes.

 

Live Radar and Lightning Widget

 

 



 

Alert Reminder:

A Watch may be issued for the region. This is for ‘potential’ over about a 6 hour period.

A Warning will be issued when there is a storm occurring to track. This will include towns in the path.

 

 

Looking Ahead: Jet Stream Animation

That pocket of cooler air this weekend will likely help morning sun build afternoon clouds… We should remain dry into the middle of next week.

 

June-16-weather-jet-stream-fathers-day-weekend

 

 

 

 

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7 Day Forecast

With the cooler air this weekend, we may have a mix of afternoon clouds, but it will be pleasant. Next week we get back to warmer temps.  Overall, a break from the rain for a while .

 

 

 

 



 

Hurricane Season Forecast: June 1 Through November 30

NOAA 2022 Hurricane Forecast- Above Normal Again

 

 

Forecast From Colorado State University

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

 

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Recent Storm Reports

May 22 Hail And Wind Damage

May 16 Large Hail Videos And Storm Tracking Map

 

Please share your thoughts, best weather pics/video, or just keep in touch via social media

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter: @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

 

 

*Disclaimer due to frequent questions:

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it:

I have dyslexia, and found out at my second year at Cornell.  I didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree, and being first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. 

I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. 

All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. 

There is no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. 

I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me…

It’s part of my charm.