Saturday Morning February
It did snow overnight, AND there are some snow showers still pivoting through this morning. However, it has been less than expected for most of our region. The last-minute suggestion for thunder snow DID NOT HAPPEN!
Baltimore City seems to have 1 to 2 inches of snow, with only the north end getting some accumulation on the pavement. Definitely NOT fitting the criteria for a Warning!
There have been some moderately higher snow reports in the northern counties. Westminster did get close to 5 inches of snow, while Frederick only got up to 2 inches.
To the south of the city, this was a FAIL with little to no snow able to stick!
There is some snow this morning and I will get into what is left in a moment….
The north side (as usual) came in close to forecast amounts. The south side (as usual) was lower.
More will be added during the morning to fill in the gaps in data.
Around 3 inches of snow North of Baltimore ‘in the Country’
The storm system was moving faster AND did not have a chance to fully explode the way I had shown you. As a result, the colder air also did not have a chance to pull farther south to help with the stickage. So the real fail may be seen in the counties SOUTH of Baltimore where there may be little to no snow holding on the ground.
I’ll personally take the hit for not dedicating my full attention. That is not an excuse, but in reality, I have been out of town with my son. My afternoon reports yesterday were done on my phone, not the full assessment on my computer, with a deep dive. I didn’t ‘phone it in’, but I guess you can suggest that.
There was a last moment pull back on short-range high-resolution models. I did not want to waiver as I saw the arrival on time and figured it was a blip in data. I also did not want to abruptly change course after the prior 24 hours appeared to be ramping up expectations. I guess the trend in this case did follow the snow earlier in the week, falling short and a little warmer for much of our region.
I believe in taking responsibility for your mistakes as much as anything else. This applies to my professional and personal life. There is more to be gained with accountability for integrity and growth.
So, I WAS WRONG! I saw there was some pull back in the evening models. Instead of leaning that way, I stayed the course. I did not want to waiver as I saw the snow arriving on time and figured the rest would simply play out.
While my snow forecast remained the same, one error was to promote the higher snow forecast from The National Weather Service front and center. That included the map with 5 to 8 inches for the suburbs north of Baltimore, AND THAT was misleading!
The snow did arrive in metro areas around Midnight. It also raced out of the region by 3 to 4 AM!
We can see the band of snow reaching Hagerstown around 5 AM. This was expected to arrive 3 hours later… So it was forecast properly except for the speed!
NOT dropping to freezing near and south of Baltimore was due to the storm moving too fast and not fully materializing for us.
The morning band of snow might drop a fresh coating to 1 inch on the north side.
The sun will come out with strong winds…
North in PA, fresh snow showers will develop and a few flurries may reach the colder inland hills west and north of Baltimore in the afternoon.
Fast moving air will flow from 20 to 30 mph. This will make it feel much colder!
Note: I will have a recap of where the snow fell and added up in my next report. I will compare it to my forecast map and the other maps as well. It is best to see what went wrong to learn for the future.
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I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF
