Friday Late Morning Update February 16

Now as we get closer to the event, some of the ‘watch’ areas have been updated based on the snowfall expectations. Not all are in the same category.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for Frederick County, Maryland, and westward for the highest totals to likely exceed 6 inches. 

A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to cover the rest of the north-central Maryland counties. The inland suburbs west and north of Baltimore will still see a moderate snowfall and have the potential for bursts to exceed 6 inches. But many areas may remain just under that threshold. 

Here is the summary, then, compare My Call For Snowfall to the NWS Maps. Below are the model maps as well.

Note: Snow may fall at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Colder temperatures in the higher elevations will allow for a ‘dry flake’ and fluff of the totals higher.

Winter Weather Alerts

Winter Storm Warning: 11 PM to 5 AM Sat

Frederick County Maryland

* WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. The highest totals are most likely under heavier snow bands and for elevations above 1000 feet where isolated totals

  to 8 inches are possible.

Washington to Garrett County, MD: 4 to 8 inches of snow.

Winter Weather Advisory: 11 PM Fri to 7 AM Sat

Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-

Northwest Prince William-

WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with localized totals around 7 inches possible under heavier snow bands.

National Weather Service Snowfall Maps

Maryland (Conservative) Expectations

Maryland HIGH END/WORST CASE

Delaware

Virginia

My Call For Snowfall

Storm Forecast:

ECMWF Model 7 PM Fri to 7 PM Saturday

Snapshot Overnight

The heaviest snow will fall between 2 AM and 6 AM. Snowfall rates maybe 1 to 2 inches per hour in some cells and bands.

See the local maps below.

Local Forecast Maps

SATURDAY SNOW

Temperatures will be dropping, with the freezing line expected to reach near Annapolis. This will allow for more stickage and accumulation in those areas south of I-95.

Radar Simulation: NAM 3 Km Midnight to Noon

Snapshots

Midnight

Temperatures

7 AM

Snow will exit the coast, but the upper-level energy may keep snow showers and flurries inland for a few extra hours.

Temperatures

11 AM

Snow should be coming to an end.

Afternoon Temperatures

The daylight will help with melting on the roads.. but as it stays near freezing inland, expect icy spots in the shade and a quick refreeze in the evening.

Potential Snowfall Maps

Computer Models

NAM 3 Km

European Model

GFS Model

7 Day Outlook

The main event will be Saturday Morning, then quiet as we head into next week.

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

Explore More

Maryland Snow Climate History And Other Winter Pages

STEM Assemblies/In School Fields Trips Are Back

Click to see more and ‘Book’ a visit to your school

RECENT Winter Outlook Reports:

My Winter Outlook: More Snow

Faith in the Flakes Gear

El Niño Winter Updates

Late November: Warm Water Shifts West In Pacific Could Mean More Snow For Eastern US

Computer Models Support East Coast Storm Track

El Niño Advisory

The latest NOAA report is confident in a Very Strong event. Possibly HISTORIC! This refers to the temperatures in the Pacific, with impacts on the US Winter Storm Track.

Winter Weather Folklore: Top 20 and more signals from nature for snow.

NOAA’s Winter Outlook 2024

Winter Outlook 2024 From Two Farmers Almanacs Return to Cold and Snow

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media

• Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

• Twitter

• Instagram

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF